For some strange reason, the conventional wisdom — at least as defined by media pundits and think-tank talking heads — maintains that Republicans hold an edge over Democrats when it comes to commanding the military and conducting foreign policy.

The record, however, suggests otherwise:

• Osama Bin Laden escaped capture or death in Tora Bora on President Bush’s watch. And the ranks of the Taliban in Afghanistan have since swelled from a low of about 3500 to as high as 20,000 today.

•  US forces “won” the war in Iraq (remember MISSION ACCOMPLISHED?) but lost the peace. Notwithstanding the recent welcome-but-limited reduction of violence in the now ethnically cleansed neighborhoods of Baghdad — which is unrelated to the “surge” — American forces face what appears to be a seemingly endless occupation of Iraq.

•  Now comes word that World War III is not imminent, as Bush said it was just several weeks ago. Iran, according to a National Intelligence Estimate (that’s a consensus of all 16 US spy agencies), suspended its efforts to build nuclear weapons four years ago. Oops.

If the Democrats had exhibited such a level of unqualified incompetence, the Bible-thumping fundamentalists among the Republican set would be christening them Koran-kissing Islamists.

The real issue here is not incompetence, though the record has shown the Bushies, from Vice-President Dick Cheney and departed secretary of defense Donald Rumsfeld to former national security advisor and current secretary of state Condoleezza Rice, to be military incompetents.

The real issue is honesty. Just as Bush lied five years ago about Saddam Hussein’s possession of weapons of mass destruction to justify the invasion of Iraq, so has Bush been lying about Iran’s nuclear-weapons program in an attempt to stampede the US into military action against that country.

How long has Bush been lying? It is hard to say for sure. A good case can be made that it’s been going on for the past five or six months. That’s when the nation’s spies began re-evaluating the intensity of the Iranian nuclear threat. In all probability, Bush knew the Iranians were not on the verge of nuclear capability by October, when he issued his coming-world-war warning.

The operative questions, of course, are: what did Bush know? And when did he know it? If Bush did not know that his own spies were rethinking their assessments, then he was, well, pretty dumb . If he did know, he was exceedingly dishonest.

Whatever the answer, dumb, dishonest, or both, it is shocking, depressing, and outrageous that decisions about life and death, war and peace — or, to put it more accurately, even more war and even less peace — can be made with such casual arrogance.

While the news about the lack of an immediate nuclear threat from Iran is welcome, it is hardly a reason to breathe easily. The medieval-minded mullahs who rule Iran pose a very real threat to Israel, to American interests in the Middle East, and — by virtue of Iran’s ability to further destabilize the oil-rich, politically fragile region — to international economic stability.

But by further damaging America’s already strained credibility with whatever few international friends it still has, the Bush administration has made the vexing job of corralling Iran disturbingly more difficult. It is another disgrace for an already discredited president.

AIDS: a somber reality
Even before the Wall Street Journal reported that the federal government is expected to announce next year that new HIV cases could be mounting at a rate 50 percent higher than previously thought, local AIDS activists began lobbying Beacon Hill for an additional $2 million dedicated to prevention.

Thanks to President Bush and the until-recently-Republican-controlled Congress, more than $200 million has been squandered on faith-based abstinence programs at the expense of scientifically proven methods, such as safe-sex initiatives and needle exchanges. Massachusetts, under the misdirection of Republicans Mitt Romney and Jane Swift, mimicked this public-health voodoo.

Governor Deval Patrick and the legislature need to reverse direction. The requested $2 million is a modest amount in light of the magnitude of the problem. They should approve the appropriation in next year’s budget.

The Massachusetts Department of Public Health recently reported that the rise of new HIV/AIDS cases is particularly acute in the black and Hispanic communities. An alarming 83 percent of women diagnosed with HIV between 2003 and 2005 are women of color.

Under Bush’s tenure, the nation has been misled about the truth about new HIV cases. “This is a typical response of this administration,” says Rebecca Haag, executive director of the AIDS Action Committee. “Underestimate the problem, underfund the solution, and blame the victims. Sounds like Katrina all over again!”

Romney’s illegal lawn care
As the Phoenix goes to press, the Boston Globe reports that Republican White House wannabe Mitt Romney, who has positioned himself as a scourge of illegal immigration, has been forced to fire his landscape company because it continued to employee illegal immigrants to tend his Belmont grounds. A year ago, Romney did the decent thing and gave the company a second chance after it was reported that it employed illegal immigrants. Now, however, the grandstanding Romney is finding out firsthand how difficult it is to come to grips with the issue of illegal immigration, a problem that has been developing for more than 20 years and defies easy solutions. Will Romney learn anything from the experience? Not likely. Slick shysterism is an ingrained Romney style. Expect more of the same.