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Giant step

If Hillary Clinton can take Pennsylvania, the Democrats will be shooting themselves in the foot
By STEVEN STARK  |  March 5, 2008

080208_tote-main

Two weeks ago we noted that, in spite of all the press hype promoting Barack Obama, the Democrats were only two steps away from chaos in their nomination process.

Now make that one step.

An Obama sweep this past Tuesday was probably never in the cards, given Hillary Clinton’s strength among working-class voters and Hispanics, which she’s had virtually all along. But a Clinton sweep of Texas and Ohio is something the media did not prepare for, as they ignored the evidence staring them in the face and essentially drove Obama around the track for a victory lap before the race had ever taken place.

Now the party has a huge problem. Sure, Obama has a narrow lead among elected delegates — a margin he’s likely to hold after the run of primaries ends in June. And, on paper, he’s still the current favorite to win the nomination in August.

But if Obama emerges as the nominee, it’s now clear his campaign is headed into the autumn homestretch with some enormous holes.

Foremost among them is that Obama has yet to win a major state other than his own (Illinois) because he’s still having trouble appealing to both Hispanics and working-class Democrats —those so-called Reagan Democrats. As early as this past November, the Pew Forum was picking up signs in its polls that Obama was running significantly worse among Catholics than he was among virtually any other demographic group in the electorate.

That’s still true. Unfortunately for Obama, Hispanics and working-class voters are two groups with some affinity for John McCain. In recent head-to-head polls, for example, McCain handily beat Obama by double digits in Florida — a state once considered a key toss-up. In another poll, the presumed GOP nominee is slightly ahead of Obama in New Jersey, a blue state in which John Kerry defeated George Bush by seven percentage points in 2004.

Color by numbers
These are worrying signs for the Democrats, should Obama be the nominee, especially now that it appears the Obama-Clinton contest could drag on for months, further weakening whoever emerges as the Democratic candidate. Michael Barone, the ace principal author of The Almanac of American Politics, recently wrote that an Obama-McCain race would redraw the red-state–blue-state map of the past few elections. But a more accurate analysis is that while McCain would be competitive in many states — even California — once considered safely Democratic, it’s hard to see as many comparable states where Obama might do the same.

In addition to California, McCain has a reasonable shot at winning blue states Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and maybe even Wisconsin and Michigan, not to mention the key swing state of Ohio. Obama, on the other hand, has a shot at red states New Mexico, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, and Virginia. McCain has the better hand to play.

This general-election weakness for Obama is sure to be an argument pressed by the Clinton forces in the days ahead. True, she probably wouldn’t have a chance in any of the red states that Obama might contest, either. But in her favor is the fact that, while her appeal to Independents is limited, she’d be far likelier to run stronger against McCain in Ohio, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and California.

The obvious problem now is that the longer the two front-runners engage each other, the less time either has to shore up weaknesses before the fall campaign. With the news that Florida governor Charlie Crist will consider allowing Democrats to restage their primary, this is now a process that could go into July without a clear winner. The few upcoming large states — Pennsylvania and, now, maybe Florida — favor Clinton. The longer Obama remains subject to attack by his opponent and a press anxious to repent (once again) for having gotten it all wrong, the weaker he will become. And once the primaries end, no one will have a clear majority, meaning there could well be a fierce contest for the superdelegates, triggering a contentious party civil war. McCain is thanking his lucky stars.

THE FIELD
REPUBLICANS
JOHN MCCAIN

GOP nominee
MIKE HUCKABEE
Withdrew

DEMOCRATS
BARACK OBAMA

Odds: 2-3 | past week: 1-2
HILLARY CLINTON
Odds: 3-2 | 2-1

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The Presidential Tote Board blog: //www.thephoenix.com/toteboard

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Comments
Giant step
Beware the Ides of March.
By gordon on 03/05/2008 at 3:11:26
Giant step
Barack Obama is the stronger candidate in taking on Hillary as Hillary Clinton is the better candidate for taking on Barack. While they're having a spirited contest, it pales in comparison to whatever the Republicans throw at either one of them. Concerned about what happens with their followers. While Barack and Hillary will hug and admire one another - one the nominee, the other not - at the August convention in Denver, their respective followers may not be agreeable to going along with the happy but stage-managed harmony. Concerned also with the racial demographics found in voters' exit surveys. Barack scores heavily with African-American voters while Hillary scores well with white voters. Barack Obama and John McCain each have an ability vital to success in November. Their cross-over appeal to Independents and voters in the other party. Barack's weakness is that he's a charismatic figure campaigning for a constitutional office. The demands of the presidency require an ability to deal with congress, press, public and foreign leaders and their governments on specific programs and nit-pickin' particulars. Not the stuff of charisma. Hillary's dwelling on "experience" shows she - unlike Barack - is fully familiar and comfortable with workman-like details. McCain's biggest weakness is the economy and other domestic issues. His position on assimilation of so-called "illegal aliens" is well known as is his co-sponsorship of the McCain-Feingold campaign reform bill. But, where's McCain on health care, education, Social Security, social services and all the rest? Hillary's weakness is her not being able to free herself from the excess baggage of the Clinton administration. The more she brings out Bill, the easier she makes '08 a referendum on the less attractive aspects of the Clinton administration - and her presumed participation. While reference is made to Pennsylvania, North Carolina is sending 134 delegates to Denver, with 115 selected in their May 6 primary and the balance being superdelegates. John Edwards, former N.C. senator, has yet ti release his 56 delegates and has not endorsed a candidate. Could be a key player. My guess for now . . . if the election is decided on terrorism and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, McCain wins. If the election is decided on the economy and domestic issues, the Democratic nominee wins. - LorenzoJennifer
By L-J on 03/06/2008 at 9:25:43
Giant step
Just to clarify, yeah, that's me - LorenzoJennifer - billed as L-J (above). Little tough getting my fastball across the plate this early in Spring Training.
By L-J on 03/06/2008 at 9:47:16
Giant step
Obama will surprise you.
By gordon on 03/06/2008 at 11:26:58
Giant step
I agree with L-J, to a point. Yea, we need to get Obama's Rezko connection, and Clinton's tax return issues, behind us now, or the Repubs will kill us with it in the Fall. Likewise for any other "real" stuff out there. The problem comes when the attack ads turn really ugly and non-factual. Case in point - Hillary's "red phone" ad which all-but-says that Obama is unprepared to be Commander in Chief. Look, if Obama becomes the nominee, we know that McCain will hit him with that regardless. But now he can say..."Even Hillary Says So". Likewise, not to take sides here, Obama is now going to be forced to respond in kind to Clinton. This thing is going to turn really, really ugly. So, no matter whether you support Clinton or Obama, the prospect of seven weeks of open warfare in Pennsylvania is not good news for the Democrats' chances in November. Steven, you were right several weeks ago...this thing is beginning to look like a slow-motion train wreck for the Democrats. Vic
By Vic in Chicago on 03/06/2008 at 12:42:37
Giant step
It make come to Obama having to play knight in shining armor and despite his lead in delegates, lay is mantle over the puddle for Clinton and let her be queen for a few years. As a veep, he'd certainly be great at keeping her worse tendencies at bay--and he'd learn tons from her about how to wield a switchblade on the streets of Washington.
By gordon on 03/06/2008 at 6:26:29
Giant step
Then again, it is the Cloak of the Black Man, with 400 years of history behind it. Slavery will not end until King's son becomes king.
By gordon on 03/07/2008 at 2:35:01
Giant step
from LorenzoJennifer (L-J) Response to Gordon, 03/06/08, 6:26 pm Must disagree on the VP. Agree with Ted Van Dyk's comment (Toteboard, 2/22/08) that the presidential nomination loser would better serve the public and their own ambitions by returning to the senate. Going further, it'll be tough enough electing either the first woman or first African-American president. Made doubly difficult if they share the ticket. While Dick Cheney has redefined the Vice-Presidency, would expect that any incoming VP (1-20-09) would find his/her role dramatically reduced. They'd be limited to the Constitutional roles of serving as President of the Senate (a formality) and casting the tie-breaking vote when a Senate vote is tied on legislation. To quote John Nance Garner, FDR's long-suffering VP, "the Vice Presidency is worth a pitcher of warm spit." Many contend the actual statement by the earthy rural Texan Gardner described the VP as being worth a "pail of warm s--t" but was cleaned up by the press of the day. Barack Obama would be squandering his future as VP. Hillary Clinton would not accept the second position in any administration. About the only benefit would have the losing VP nominee in 2008 becoming the presumed front-runner for 2012. John Edwards could have pulled this off had he sought and won re-election as N. C. senator in 2004. (NC election laws permitted him to run for both Senate - a state election - and VP - a federal election - in the same year).
By L-J on 03/07/2008 at 7:40:59
Giant step
from LorenzoJennifer (L-J). REPLY to GORDON, 03/07/08, 2:34 a.m. Slavery will not end until the King's son renounces the crown, distributes the wealth of the kingdom to all, banishes slavery and any other form of involuntary servitude, and establishes a form of government in accordance with the will of the people. "There go the people," goes an old saying, "and I must follow them for I am their leader."
By L-J on 03/07/2008 at 7:49:59
Giant step
Reply to L-J: intelligent comments, but Obama giving up the crown would be like Lear distributing his kingdom to his daughters...I'm for blockading the Denver convention if Obama isn't nominated. Who's in!
By gordon on 03/07/2008 at 1:09:21
Giant step
King LEER is an apt description of Bill Clinton's role in a Hillarious presidency. He could usurp the V.P. role of traveling abroad to attend funerals held for dead heads of states. Bill would console the widow. Would consider blockading Den-vah when it's Springtime in the Rockies or if Judy Collins gives a free concert. Getting gassed, cuffed, busted and shipped off to Guantanamo Bay ("Guantanamera . . . Guantanamo . . .")? At the end of August? Pourquoi? Mais non! Would simply ruin everyone's plans for the Labor Day week-end. We can't have that!!
By L-J on 03/08/2008 at 8:17:43

ARTICLES BY STEVEN STARK
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    Conservatives are missing the mark on Obama’s vulnerability
  •   O'S GOT A TV EYE ON YOU  |  June 25, 2008
    The era of TV advertising in presidential general elections is over
  •   THE OBAMA TWO-STEP  |  June 18, 2008
    Now that we know for sure Obama is going to the dance, who’s he gonna bring as his partner?
  •   GOING DUTCH  |  June 11, 2008
    If Obama is to win the general election, he’ll have to crib from the playbook of . . . Ronald Reagan
  •   ‘SORRY’ STATE  |  June 04, 2008
    How to eliminate a bad decision or policy misstep and win back voters

 See all articles by: STEVEN STARK

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