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Super preview

Clinton and McCain shouldn’t write their acceptance speeches just yet
January 30, 2008 2:47:40 PM

080201_tote_main2

There’s a terrific episode of The Twilight Zone, “The Odyssey of Flight 33,” in which a New York–bound jet accidentally travels back in time to the prehistoric age. The pilots rev up the engines to try to return to the present and, after the jet has gained speed, the skyline of Manhattan comes into view. There is exultation for a few moments, until one pilot catches sight of the 1939 World’s Fair.

“We came back,” he says. “We came back . . . dear God, [but] not far enough!”

That’s the situation the Obama campaign hopes it won’t be facing as it heads into Super Tuesday, with more than 20 states voting in a kind of national primary that will likely determine the nominees of both parties.

By any objective measure, Barack Obama has run a terrific campaign, coming from nowhere to challenge the Clintons (and that, as we have learned, means both of them). Once faced with Hillary’s seemingly insurmountable 30-point leads in both national polls and major states’ contests, Obama’s now reduced her lead to single digits in many places.

But the problem is that, though he has made impressive gains, Obama has to pass Clinton to win, especially since she has the lead in superdelegates. And as the race goes from a half-court game to a fast-break shootout, he’s facing an electorate that, for the most part, isn’t paying much attention to national politics.

That’s a reflection of the cable and Internet age. In the old network-TV days, even Americans with little interest in politics got some exposure to electioneering from the nightly news or the local paper. So someone with Obama’s electoral success would have been able to break through more easily.

But now most Americans get their information from one of the thousands of sources they choose individually, from Facebook to podcasts. The result is that, on the one hand, a small number of voters (including many in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Iowa) are more informed than ever from all the political coverage on the Net and elsewhere. But then, on the other hand, there’s a far larger number who rarely, if ever, seek out any political news and have very little idea what’s going on.

Even those Democrats who haven’t been paying attention, however, have heard of Clinton. In contrast, in many places, Obama is still an unknown quantity, and when so many states will be voting at once, he can reach only very few of them through advertising.

Because the Democrats pick their delegates proportionately by congressional district, even if Obama loses most of the statewide contests this Tuesday, he will probably win almost half the delegates and be less than 200 delegates behind (with around 2000 needed to win the nomination). But the close delegate race will be a bit of a mirage: the flip side of a proportional scheme is that, once you get behind, it’s also much harder to catch up.

As of today, here’s how Super Tuesday stacks up for the two contenders. Fifteen states are holding Democratic primaries. (Caucuses are also being held in Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, New Mexico, and North Dakota. Not only are fewer delegates at stake in these places, the media is unlikely to report them heavily.) As a baseline — not a prediction — Clinton currently appears to be the favorite in 11 primary states, Obama in four.

CLINTON Arizona (leaning), Arkansas, California (leaning), Delaware, Massachusetts (leaning), Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee (leaning), Utah

OBAMA Alabama, Connecticut (leaning), Georgia, Illinois

If that’s the final result, the delegate race will be close, but Clinton will have the momentum and can close in on the nomination. If Obama can win a few of the Clinton states — especially California, where he can gain anti-Hillary votes from Independents (who can vote in the Democratic primary but not the Republican one) — it’s a fight to the finish. If Obama wins fewer than four primary states Tuesday night, Clinton can probably start writing her acceptance speech.

The GOP Three
On the Republican side, it’s a three-way race, with John McCain the front-runner. (Rudy Giuliani, who banked on an idiotic big-state strategy, is done.) For McCain to emerge as the nominee, he has to sweep, as expected, the three Northeastern states — New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut — which, delegate-wise, are each winner-take-all. As the hometown favorite, he’ll obviously win Arizona (another winner-take-all state).

Mitt Romney can probably count on Utah and Massachusetts, two of his multitude of home states. Mike Huckabee seems likely to do well in the South, and of Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, he can probably count on some, and if he’s lucky, all (though Romney or McCain would love to win one or two).

The key, then, is who wins California, Missouri, and Illinois. For Romney to challenge McCain, he has to win two, if not all, of that trio — especially Missouri and California, since the former is winner-take-all and the latter is winner take-all by congressional district, and, as mentioned above, Independents can’t vote in the GOP primary, weakening McCain.

So, by Wednesday morning, we’ll also know the likely outcome of the GOP race: McCain (likely), Romney (less likely), Huckabee (even less likely), or a deadlock because none of the contenders could close the deal.

THE FIELD
REPUBLICANS
JOHN McCAIN

Odds: 2-3 | past week: 5-3
MITT ROMNEY
Odds: 3-1 | 7-2
MIKE HUCKABEE
Odds: 6-1 | same
RON PAUL
Odds: 200-1 | same
RUDY GIULIANI
Odds: withdrew
ALAN KEYES
No longer taking bets

DEMOCRATS
HILLARY CLINTON

Odds: 1-2 | past week: same
BARACK OBAMA
Odds: 2-1 | same
JOHN EDWARDS
Odds: withdrew
DENNIS KUCINICH
Odds: withdrew
MIKE GRAVEL
No longer taking bets

On the Web
The Presidential Tote Board blog: //www.thephoenix.com/toteboard

COMMENTS

AUTHOR UPDATE ON SUNDAY! On Thursday, we filed our Super Tuesday Tote Board preview in the Phoenix. Since publication, here's how things have changed: REPUBLICANS McCain appears like he may salt away the nomination on Tuesday. Not only does he continue to hold his lead in the northeast but he appears to be doing very well in the the South -- where there are five primaries -- and could win a majority of them. If that happens, all he really has to do is win one of the midwest-west three -- California, Missouri, and Illinois -- to be virtually unassailable. Right now, he appears poised to do that. DEMOCRATS Obama appears to be surging. On Thursday, we had Clinton leading in 11 of the primary states (with 4 of those leaning); Obama leading in four (with one leaning). Since publication, Delaware, Missouri, and New Jersey have moved into the leaning category as well -- meaning Clinton is being challenged by Obama strongly in 10 primary states of the 15 up for grabs on Tuesday. (Tennessee now appears to be secure for Clinton.) Equally significant, Obama appears to be doing well in the major caucus states of Colorado and Minnesota. The bottom line is that if Obama can win six primaries of the 15 held on Tuesday, he is in decent shape to challenge Clinton the rest of the way -- though it would help greatly if California were among them. Here's the current prognosis: CLINTON: Arizona (leaning), Arkansas, California (leaning), Delaware (leaning), Massachusetts (leaning), Missouri (leaning), New Jersey (leaning), New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah OBAMA: Alabama (leaning), Connecticut (leaning), Georgia, Illinois CHECK OUT THE TOTE BOARD BLOG AT WWW.THEPHOENIX.COM/TOTEBOARD/ FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION

POSTED BY Steven Stark AT 02/03/08 9:15 AM
Please forward to this to the superdelegates: I will NOT vote for Clinton if she is nominated. I will switch to McCain. He is an honorable man. He is a torture survivor. Can Hillary make any claim like that?

POSTED BY gordon AT 02/06/08 5:35 PM

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