July 02, 2009
Today's juicy inside-baseball political story is at CBS News, which has testy emails between Sarah Palin and McCain campaign strategist Steve Schmidt. Palin was demanding that the campaign respond to stories about her husband's involvement with an Alaskan secessionist group; Schmidt was telling her that responding is the wrong move, and the campaign won't do it.
The email exchange took place on October 15th -- a day that I spent trailing Sarah Palin around New Hampshire.
I wrote about my impressions from those appearances on my blog the next day, and then wrote an article for the next issue of the Phoenix.
I noted then that her rhetoric had been toned down -- at least in part, I suggested, because "the campaign wanted to rein [Palin] in, to avoid controversy before the final presidential debate to be held that evening." The CBS News story seems to confirm this, in discussing why Schmidt didn't want to issue a statement:
The final of the three presidential debates was just hours away, which would mark the unveiling of the soon-to-be canonized Joe The Plumber. The Joe The Plumber narrative was the Republicans' secret weapon -- the last chance to put a chink in Obama's seemingly impervious armor. It was not a time for distractions, but the campaign was compelled to deal with the drama that seemed to follow Palin wherever she went.
In the email exchange, Palin claimed that the Alaskan Independence Party issue "cropped up all day today - two reporters, a protestor's sign, and many shout-outs all claiming Todd's involvement in an anti-American political party." Schmidt refuted her claim, writing that "According to your staff there have been no media inquiries into this and you received no questions about it during your interviews."
I don't have my notes from that day handy at the moment, but I can tell you that Palin had very little opportunity to see or hear anyone protesting her; she was very well isolated from what few anti-Palin demonstrators there were. And I have no recollection of seeing or hearing the AIP issue cropping up at all that day -- although again, I'm just relying on my memory and could be mistaken.
July 02, 2009
So now, roughly five years after an FBI informant began taping Boston police officers regularly partying with "known drug dealers" and prostitutes; some four years after Roberto Pulido was caught on tape talking about supplying illegal steroids to other officers; three years after federal agents submitted affadavits claming that Pulido was paying off his department superiors to keep the "Boom-Boom Room" parties hushed up; nearly two years since an agent testified that two other BPD officers were running illegal after-hours parties; barely 16 months after Commissioner Ed Davis told me that soon "the cancer that was growing within the Boston Police Department will be removed"; and by strange coincidence on a stormy Thursday afternoon leading into a three-day holiday weekend, Davis announced the conclusion of the internal investigation, with 11 officers receiving reprimands or suspensions. The federal criminal investigation is technically still open, but sources tell me, that no further criminal charges are likely.
I'm sure I'll have more to say about this later.
July 02, 2009
A major thunderstorm is chasing everyone home early to start the three-day holiday weekend -- any clever political strategists have some news they want to dump with little attention?
Why, yes. Associated Press is reporting that Gov. Deval Patrick's chief of staff, Doug Rubin, will resign in the coming weeks. Rubin, top strategist in Patrick's '06 campaign, will now set up the private consulting business that he tried to start after that election -- before he got roped back in to steer the administration back on course, after its initial bumpy start.
This was clearly a coordinated move, to put Rubin back into campaign mode for 2010 -- as Rubin indicates to the AP.
Rubin slips away at a good time, with the budget and the big reform bills done. Arthur Bernard, former Trav man who came to the Patrick team a year ago via UMass, will become the new c-o-s.
July 02, 2009
...in Facebook fans, that is. As of my current check, Tito Jackson has 1373 fans of his campaign's Facebook page, surpassing Andrew Kenneally (1148), Felix Arroyo (934), Ayanna Pressley (862). and John Connolly (787).
Plus, I met Tito's mom, Rosa last night at his kick-off party. I wouldn't want to bet against any boy of hers.
Even Stephen Murphy has got a Facebook group now. He's hip with the young people.
Now, let's see whether FB following translates into some campaign cash; June reports will be trickling in over the next several days.
July 01, 2009
I've got to think it's tough for a campaign strategist when someone like me calls up and starts the conversation with: "I'm looking at the finance report and wondering why I should take your candidate seriously at this point."
James Spencer gave me some A-plus spin, but the fact is that Sam Yoon raised just under $40,000 in June; he peaked with a $51k March and has declined since. He's raised less than a quarter-million dollars since announcing his candidacy (plus roughly $150k carried in), has been unable to spend any money to get on anyone's radar screen, and has less than $200,000 on hand with less than three months until the preliminary.
As Yoon was announcing back in February, I wrote that Yoon would need roughly $1.5 million to run an effective campaign: half for the bulk of it, and half for a sustained media presence in the final weeks. He's not going to be close.
Michael Flaherty, by comparison, just had his best fundraising month of the year, topping $100,000 for the first time. It's true that Flaherty has been burning through his money, but he's getting something for that investment -- and one of the things he's getting is the growing impression that he's in this thing and Yoon isn't. If that doesn't change by the end of the summer (and summer's a tough time to change anything in Boston politics), then the late anti-incumbent money, manpower and momentum will all flow to Flaherty.
Besides, Flaherty still has, by my accounting, more than twice the cash-on-hand that Yoon has.
Mind you, Yoon still has a path to victory in my opinion, which I summarized this way in that February article:
Yoon's savior, then, ironically, may be his City Council
rival Flaherty, whose campaign strategy almost certainly includes plans for
sustained, aggressive assaults on Menino. If effective, those attacks could
leave voters looking for an alternative to both the attacker and his quarry —
and finding Yoon standing above the fray, preaching his positive vision of the
city's future. As one local operative says, it's politics 101: A
attacks B, and C wins the election.
That's still a real possibility. But when I look at these anemic fundraising numbers, I find it hard to picture.
July 01, 2009
In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- I report that the City of Boston has paid $3.8 million to settle a civil lawsuit over the wrongful conviction of Anthony Powell.
This is the third, and largest, recent settlement for the city's liability in a string of nine wrongful convictions discovered between 1999 and 2004; the total amount is now over $10 million.
The item is here:
Boston's $10 Million Boo-Boos: Righting A Wrongful Conviction
Update: The new editorial is now up as well. It has two parts. First, a look at the patchwork state budget. Second, following up on my story, the need for a post-conviction DNA law.
July 01, 2009
Jeff Jacoby once again rounds up whatever climate-change debunkery he finds floating in the conservative flotsam, and churns out a column scoffing at Al Gore. This should keep him in the good graces and high click-throughs in the right-wing blogosphere, but earns him another whacking from my little blog.
To Jacoby's credit, he at least leaves out the current fave theory of the denial crowd, concerning the allegedy suppressed contrarian views of an EPA scientist. The less said on that the better.
Anyhoo, Jacoby tosses out a few examples of how unsettled the debate is. First up, the Polish Academy of Sciences. The brief opinion document from its Geological Sciences Committee (produced in February, not July) does indeed caution restraint in public policy, arguing that we don't know enough to say how much of the global warming is human-caused:
The present warming coincides with elevated contents of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.... It is certain that increased content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is connected partly with human activity. Therefore, all steps that restrain this emission and agree with principles of sustainable development should be taken, starting from a cease of extensive deforestation, especially in tropical areas. Various adapting measures that can mitigate effects of the recent trend of climate warming should be implemented by political decision makers.
That's from a translation; the original is in Polish. It is important to note that A) this was not a scientific paper, but a two-page statement; B) this committee is one of 107 in the Academy, including some that are more specifically focussed on environment and climate; and C) the academy as a whole fully endorses the IPCC report.
Jacoby also cites wacky French socialist Claude Allegre -- I'll let you and your Google bar have fun exploring his unique views of the world -- who, while fully acknowledging global warming, now claims that there's not enough proof to say that it's caused by man's actions. That's just something he likes to say -- he's never published any serious scientific paper about it or anything.
Ivar Giaever's "new religion" comment is even sillier than Allegre's thoughts. Giaever, a retired physicist who admits to having no expertise on the climate, was pushed into participating in a global warming panel last year that he didn't want to be on, during which he expressed skepticism that global warming is as bad as everyone seems to think. (He noted that he prepared for the discussion by doing some Google searching.)
Next, Jacoby reports on an open letter to Congress signed by six incessant warming deniers, only one of whom (the ubiquitous Richard Lindzen of MIT) is a climatologist. He also points to climatologist John Christy, who absolutely agrees that human activity is warming the environment, but claims that his model shows this warming to be more moderate than those generally accepted.
Here's the bottom line: it is perfectly reasonable to debate the economic costs of different approaches to combatting climate change, and if Jacoby would stick to that I would be happy to take him seriously. (I personally believe that those on the opposite end of the issue err in downplaying the necessary economic costs of a serious approach.) But it is impossible to take Jacoby seriously if he asserts such nonsense as "the debate over global warming is more robust than it has been in years." It is not. There are some serious scientists who argue that the effects of human-caused warming will be less severe than the generally accepted scientific view, just as there are some who argue that the effects will be more severe. But there are only a handful who continue to deny that it's real and serious, while there are dozens and dozens of serious scientific organizations -- each representing hundreds or thousands of members -- who all agree otherwise. There is a constant stream of peer-reviewed work updating and improving upon warming theory, compared with none in the debunkers' corner. Jacoby and others can continue to trawl for the occasional grumpy skeptic or out-of-context quote, but they cannot build from that a serious debate on global warming.
June 30, 2009
Boston City Councilor John Connolly has issued the following statement, in response to recent allegations made on a local blog:
I am not now and never have been a member of the Tehran City Council, and to the best of my knowledge, I have never had a moustache.
In response to Connolly's response, the Phoenix is calling on members of the public to forward any and all photographic evidence of John Connolly in a mustache. The truth will out!
June 30, 2009
John Connolly has put out a campaign-launch video. In it he says he's all about One Boston -- preferably one with good schools, safe streets, and lots of eco-friendliness. He stands in a classroom, so we know he's serious about the schools; maybe in the next video he'll drive a former gangbanger to school, in a hybrid vehicle.
Whatever. I've got bigger fish to fry.
See, I found out that there is a Tehran City Council. (Ten members, all elected city-wide, four-year terms -- exactly how we should do it here, in my opinion.) And it has a web site, which I can't understand because it's in Persian.
But I do know that a phony mustache can't disguise the obvious. (It's the "pretending to be interested in your testimony" look that gives him away!)
June 30, 2009
At this early stage in the 2012 Presidential election cycle, I am updating my rankings every two months. (Click for previous rankings, end of December, end of February, and end of April.)
So much can happen in two months! These are busy people: they reveal extramarital affairs; take jobs halfway around the world for the Democratic administration; get in fights with late-night talk-show hosts.... two months can be a long time.
So, there have been some shake-ups in the rankings. But the top dog remains the same: Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota. Here's my current top 25, with previous rank in parentheses. Enjoy, and discuss!
1) Tim Pawlenty, Governor of Minnesota. As I suspected, he announced that he will not run for re-election in 2010. I assume that for the remaining 18 months of his term, he will govern remotely from Iowa. (1)
2) Jim DeMint, US Senator from South Carolina. He's now indisputedly the most likely South Carolinian to get the nomination. Plus, who do you suppose the movement conservatives will adopt as their new darling, with Sanford out (see below).... perhaps the guy with the new book out titled: "Saving Freedom: We Can Stop America's Slide Into Socialism"? Ya think? (2)
3) Mike Pence, US Representative from Indiana. As Republican Conference Chairman, Pence has rolled out the House GOP's "alternative bills" on energy, budget, and health care. Those plans haven't impressed critics like me, but they've solidified his reputation as the conservatives' idea man in Washington -- something the Party Of No is desperately looking for. Think of him as the new Newt, but with fewer wives. (4)
4) John Thune, US Senator from South Dakota. Thune moved into the Senate leadership position vacated by John Ensign (see below), which doesn't help much. He authored an anti-TARP bill, which helps a little. He didn't get caught philandering, which helps a lot. (5)
5) Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts. He's everywhere, all the time, talking about everything -- he must be running for something, right? He got a little good news, from a Pew poll indicating that he's not quite as generally disliked as he had been. It's a start. (6)
6) Haley Barbour, Governor of Mississippi. Barbour had already been seen taking meetings with Important GOP Insiders, and then when Sanford imploded he took the opportunity to further advance himself as the responsible grown-up in the party. He replaced Stanford as chairman of the Republican Governors Association, which, as Romney can attest, is a terrific platform for a Presidential run. If Barbour runs, the safe, insider GOP money is likely to go with him -- which could be a problem for Pawlenty, who needs a bite of that apple. (15)
7) Rick Perry, Governor of Texas. I've said all along that if Perry wins re-election -- a big if, with Kay Bailey Hutchison challenging him (see below) -- he's one of the top contenders. Early polls have not been kind to him, but a new one showed him in the lead. Maybe the wild ranting about secession is helping; he'll get a chance to reprise that rhetoric at a July 4 "Tea Party" protest. (10)
8) Mitch Daniels, Governor of Indiana. Daniels has stated emphatically that he will not run for President. Whatevs. (12)
9) Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana. Old assessment: a fresh face to make people forget that they can't stand Republicans. Re-assessment: overshadowed by a new crop of untainted Republicans. New re-assessment: a fresh face to make people forget that they can't stand the new crop of Republicans either. (11)
10) Kay Bailey Hutchison, US Senator from Texas. She's expected to resign from the Senate this fall to concentrate on her gubernatorial run. Still unknown whether she can beat Perry without alienating herself from the movement conservatives. (8)
11) Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House from Georgia. Remember when he believed in combatting climate change? That was so last year: now he's totally against it. Also totally against health-care reform. But he's not just saying No; headlining a huge GOP fundraiser, he called for a 50% cut in the Social Security and Medicaid tax; elimination of the capital gains tax; and slashing the corporate tax rate by 60%. Then the next day he went on Hannity and bashed Obama and the Democrats for increasing the deficit. Odd, that Hannity didn't call him on the contradiction.... (17)
12) Jon Kyl, Senator from Arizona. Kyl has been keeping busy opposing the Democrats at every turn, which is good for him in conservative circles while not making a ripple in the general public. The upcoming Sotomayor confirmation hearings will be interesting: the rabid right will expect him to be their lead pit bull on the Judiciary Committee, but is he willing to publicly beat up on a woman most people -- including most Republicans, according to a recent poll -- think should be confirmed? (14)
13) Eric Cantor, US Representative from Virginia. He's been just as noisy as ever berating Obama and House Democrats on Iran, energy, the economy, and everything else under the sun. So why does it feel like he's fading from the public spotlight? (13)
14) Lindsey Graham, US Senator from South Carolina. Graham had fallen off my list -- but he springs back, to become the second-ranked South Carolinian! His Meet The Press appearance this week -- in which he practically begged to be taken seriously as a party leader -- was well-received. And don't forget that as John McCain's best bud, he stands to inherit a lot of the '08 national organization if he wants it. Still a long-shot, but not impossible. (--)
15) Bob Corker, US Senator from Tennessee. He's been stepping up his game a little, but to be a serious contender he needs a few more boring conservative white guys on this list to self-destruct. (16)
16) Sarah Palin, Governor of Alaska. She's convinced that the New York/Hollywood media/celebrity crowd are out to get her. Most of the core conservatives hate the New York/Hollywood media/celebrity crowd. Ergo, they are Palinites. I wasn't sure she could keep playing that card effectively from Alaska for the interim part of the election cycle, but now I see that she can. (23)
17) Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas. I think it's time to launch an official Belly Watch on Huck (as for Al Gore in the last cycle): if we see some gut shrinkage, that means he's getting in shape to run; as long as the paunch remains, we'll assume he's not. Current Belly Watch status: not running. (19)
18) Jeb Bush, former Governor of Florida. He's suddenly getting a lot of talk. It's not the most improbable thing that could possibly ever happen in the universe. (21)
19) Dirk Kempthorne, former Interior Secretary. He's mostly been out of the public eye, but he's been getting a little attention as the guy who put in place certain anti-environmental policies at Interior that are now being overturned. That's WAY better than admitting to marital infidelity. (24)
20) Gen. David Petraeus, CENTCOM Commander. He dropped off the list for a while, but the idea is back in vogue in Republican circles -- where they're dying for a candidate who makes them feel good about being Republicans. (--)
21) John Ensign, US Senator from Nevada. He's got a chance to come back, because his wife's standing with him -- as long as nothing substantial sticks about payoffs and patronage with the other woman and her hubby. On the other hand, how do you claim to be capable of being President, if you weren't capable of serving as chairman of the Republican Policy Committee? (9)
22) Charlie Crist, Governor of Florida. After my last rankings, he confirmed rumors that he'll run for Senate in 2010 -- which I take as a concession that the 2012 Presidential nomination is not a realistic goal for a relative moderate like him. Still, I'm not sure he was expecting Marco Rubio's primary race against him to become the cause celebre of the movement conservatives. (See below.) I could have warned him. (22)
23) Jon Huntsman, Governor of Utah. After my last rankings, he accepted a nomination to be Obama's ambassador to China -- which I take as a concession that the 2012 Presidential nomination is not a realistic goal for a relative moderate like him. Some are saying he can still do it, but it's awfully hard to swing by Ames on the way from Tianjin to Shanghai. (7)
24) Marc[Oops! Mark] Sanford, Governor of South Carolina. In the weird world of Republican politics, it's possible to come back from admitting an affair. But being revealed as a wacko is tough. (You have to start with a public image as a wacko to run as a wacko -- See: Perot, Ross.) If he's forced to resign, he's done; if he manages to keep his job, he might recover. (3)
25) Marc Rubio, former Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives. A lot of Republicans are hoping that a star will emerge from the 2010 election cycle. Some point to Meg Whitman, running for Governor of California, but she's too moderate to run in the 2012 primaries. I think that if Rubio beats Crist in the primary, he becomes the conservative fresh face -- who, like Obama, should go for the top immediately if at all. (--)
(Dropping off the list: Tom Ridge, Paul Ryan, Asa Hutchison)
June 29, 2009
Politics Magazine (formerly Campaigns & Elections) has a new monthly feature where they're naming the 100 most important political "influencers" in each state. They start this month with New Hampshire, and naturally turn to James Pindell, who knows all there is to know about NH politics.
I compiled a similar list for my own purposes during the 2008 Presidential primary cycle. Four years earlier, someone did one for NH Democrats -- keeping track of who each Influencer endorsed. (A lot of John Kerrys.)
Pindell's results are here, and you can believe that I'm not the only one clipping and saving. Interesting to note that Dean Barker, blogger at BlueHampshire.com, makes the Top 10 Democrats. (Over Speaker Norelli? Shumaker?) Also worth noting how many of the "Influencers" were with Hillary Clinton, and how few were with Obama -- probably a factor in her salvaging that badly-needed primary win. (Notable exceptions who backed Obama include Jim Demers, Gary Hirshberg, Martha Fuller Clark, and Dick & Katrina Swett.)
Of course, it's the 50 Republicans on Pindell's list who will be of interest in the 2012 primary cycle. They can expect their phones to be busy for the next three years....
June 26, 2009
"Matt" asks:
What's voter turnout going to be in the Mayoral/Council preliminary election? Final?
Jeez, I don't know. I'll say a little under 100,000 for the prelim, and a little over 100,000 for the final. Why can't there be more Michael Jackson questions?
Seriously though, I appreciate all the queries. Keep 'em coming!
June 26, 2009
"Mer" asks:
Is Charlie Baker running for governor, and if not, who is the next best hope for the GOP in 2010?
I have no special insight into Baker's brain, but from people I've spoken with I get the impression that he is serious in his interest. I'm guessing that he ultimately does not run -- especially if Tim Cahill really looks like he's running as an independent.
A Cahill independent candidacy makes it awfully tough for a Republican candidate, as I have previously written. Cahill and the GOP nom would be splitting the right-of-Deval vote, and to beat the incumbent you need all of that vote to yourself.
Beyond Baker, I think Chris Egan might be their best bet, but I haven't heard any squeak about him or anyone else lately. Bear in mind that whoever gets in would have to spend some serious dough to fight a primary battle against a wealthy and well-known opponent in Christie Mihos, and then really spend big in the general election campaign. Egan obviously has the do-re-mi for that, but others -- like state senator Scott Brown, for example -- would have to start fundraising soon to make it happen.
June 26, 2009
"Mike" asks:
Michael Flaherty has gone through somewhat of a political makeover recently. He flipped his position on open government, the BU biolab, funding for street workers, charter schools, etc. Will he be able to reinvent himself successfully as a progressive?
I think this is a little unfair, but certainly Flaherty has, shall we say, "adapted" in some ways to fit the needs of the campaign. So has Menino, BTW, on some of the same issues.
I also think that Flaherty has a legitimate claim to being an ideological "progressive," by most definitions. What's tougher for him -- and arguably more important in this race -- is claiming to be a "progressive" reformer. That's the "political makeover" he's trying to accomplish: from City Hall insider to shake-things-up good-government change agent. His success in selling that reinvention remains to be seen.
June 26, 2009
"Peabody Square voter" asks:
How do you decide which posts get published and which ones don't? I commented on your at-large council candidates wrap-up, and never saw it on the blog. Just wondering.
I occassionally hear from people that their posts don't appear, and I have no idea why that is or how often it happens. I don't believe they're being screened, or blocked intentionally. (On rare occasions, I've had comments removed if they make slanderous allegations about someone.) I'd guess that it has something to do with the registration process, but I'll see if I can get an answer from the web folks here.
BTW -- anyone who wants to participate in Ask Me Anything Day can also email me their question directly, at dbernstein@phx.com
