John Baldacci |
John Baldacci appears to be on track for re-election November 7, in spite of himself.“Things have been going a little bit better,” the Democratic governor says, sounding almost jaunty in a telephone interview.
Indeed, the most recent SurveyUSA poll has him pulling away from his nearest competitor, Republican nominee Chandler Woodcock, 44 percent to 39 percent. Rasmussen Reports recently served up identical polling numbers. While not disclosing his polling, Baldacci’s campaign manager, Jesse Connolly, says, “We’re feeling good. There is a lot of work to be done, but the numbers we’re seeing show us trending in the right direction.”
Tellingly, all of Baldacci’s opponents express frustration — especially, independent Barbara Merrill and Green Independent Pat LaMarche. They have not been able to break out of the single digits in the polls. SurveyUSA puts them respectively at 7 and 6 percent. Many experienced Augusta political and journalistic hands now expect Baldacci to win re-election.
It's a good spot for someone whose job-approval poll numbers have been consistently low for a year and a half. It is commonly acknowledged — for example, on newspaper editorial pages — that he has not yet provided the public with answers to the crucial questions of jobs, property taxes, and health care affordability.
“There’s no quick fix to the problems of the state,” Baldacci says, explaining his first term’s difficulties and asking voters for a second.
So how has he been able to land in such a promising position despite his first-term fumbling and the dissatisfaction that many Mainers express with him?
First, although “there is a moderate amount of antipathy [toward Baldacci] everywhere,” maintains Republican state senator Peter Mills, who lost in the GOP primary, he also says voters do not have intense antipathy toward the governor. That’s the campaign backdrop.
Second, Baldacci is lucky. His chief opponent, Woodcock, is too conservative for most Maine voters, opposing abortion and gay rights, and wanting intelligent design taught in the schools. If you didn’t know this, the Democrats will make sure you do.
Third, Baldacci is a professional politician, unlike his opponents. He has a clever campaign that is out-maneuvering, out-shooting, and fundamentally out-classing his opponents. Never underestimate the power of a good campaign.
Part of it involves taking full advantage of state government, like any governor seeking re-election would. Incessant news releases fly from his taxpayer-financed press office, and are posted on the maine.gov Web portal, making it look like a campaign site.
State government also helps in subtler ways. The state’s Dirigo Health Agency is spending $139,000 this season on TV ads praising Baldacci’s signature issue, Dirigo health care insurance. Woodcock calls these ads “inappropriate.” But Dirigo spent more on ads last fall, the agency says, and selling insurance is their business.
“You’ll never find me mentioned in that stuff,” says Baldacci.
A big, specific ingredient of his campaign’s success is something technically separate, although most people would never know — the hundreds of thousands of dollars of sophisticated Maine Democratic Party pro-Baldacci TV spots that circumvent the state’s Clean Election Act. They have been on the tube for weeks, largely paid for by national Democratic “soft money” that isn’t reported as a contribution to his re-election effort.
