The official MDP explanation was that this was a rules clarification, not a rules change, and that allowing only elected delegates to sign Gabrieli’s petition would have divided the delegate pool into two unequal classes. But critics counter that there was zero ambiguity whatsoever in the word “elected,” and that Gabrieli benefited from special treatment. “They simply changed the rule,” another Democratic insider complains.

This resentment could make it especially challenging for Gabrieli to take the next step — namely, convincing 800-some delegates to vote for him on the floor of the convention come June. Remember: these delegates are, for the most part, political junkies who love the process of politics. But Gabrieli’s late entry suggests a tacit disrespect for their worldview — which, in turn, could alienate delegates who still aren’t committed. Furthermore, plenty of Deval Patrick supporters see Gabrieli, rightly or wrongly, as an establishment figure who’s received the go-ahead to bring their candidate down. Then there’s Tom Reilly, who may be hovering uncomfortably close to the 15 percent mark himself: he has to avoid hemorrhaging so many delegates to Gabrieli that his gubernatorial hopes die on the convention floor in Worcester. For different reasons, both the Patrick and the Reilly forces are sure to fight like hell to prevent defections to Gabrieli come June.

Vaguely Goofy
If Gabrieli does eke out a spot on the primary ballot, expect him to make a serious run at the nomination. (It’s happened before: former Boston University president John Silber just passed the 15 percent threshold in 1990, then rolled to the nomination.) Gabrieli has deep pockets, for starters: he spent about $5 million of his personal fortune in his run for Congress and again during his LG’s bid, and would presumably be willing to invest at least that much this time around. (You almost have to feel sorry for Reilly, who recently touted his hard-won $4 million cash-on-hand total as proof that he was the most electable Democratic candidate; Gabrieli can access that kind of cash simply by pulling out his checkbook.)

Also, while there’s something vaguely goofy about Gabrieli, it’s a friendly, energetic, nimble-minded kind of goofiness — the kind that, with the right combination of circumstances, could evolve into a winning political persona. Thanks to his substantial tenure as a civic-minded philanthropist, he can point to more concrete public-policy achievements than either of his competitors. And, not unlike Patrick, he combines stalwart social liberalism with a business background that could appeal to centrist voters, both in the primary and in the general.

Right now, however, Gabrieli needs to focus on surviving the proceedings in Worcester two months from now. Unless he does, all the fuss over his candidacy will prove to have been much ado about nothing.

On the Web:
Adam Reilly's Talking Politics blog: //www.thephoenix.com/talkingpolitics
Chris Gabrieli: //www.gabrieli.org/
Chris Gabrieli at Mass 2020: //www.mass2020.org/about_staff_chris.html
Deval Patrick: //www.devalpatrick.com/
Tom Reilly: //www.tomreilly.org/
Kerry Healey: //www.healeycommittee.com/
Christy Mihos: //www.christy2006.com/