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Going the distance

With two major contests over and done, the nomination process is coming into clearer focus. Who’ll be the last person standing?
January 9, 2008 2:04:45 PM

080111_tote_main

So far the media storyline on Campaign 2008 is how extraordinary this year’s race has been, with the process dominated by upsets and a renewed call for change.

But as we all know after Tuesday night in New Hampshire, the press was mostly spinning itself.

In fact, so far, 2008 looks like a somewhat conventional year. It’s not unusual, on the Democratic side, for an insurgent, outsider candidate to challenge the establishment front-runner — as Bradley did Gore, Hart did Mondale, and McGovern did Muskie. It’s only when there is no establishment front-runner that the process changes, as it did in 2004, 1992, and 1988.

For the record, the renegade usually does quite well in an early state or two. Sometimes he even goes on to win the nomination — but sometimes he doesn’t.

As for the GOP, the usual rule is that the person at the top of the public-opinion polls a year before the primary voting begins goes on to win the nomination. Well, guess who was leading those polls a year ago?

John McCain and Rudy Giuliani, in a virtual tie. It still doesn’t look like a terrible bet that the Republican race will come down to those two. And, even if Mike Huckabee makes a run, there are historical antecedents for that, too — going back to the Goldwater–Rockefeller contest in 1964.

None of this means, of course, that the race will be predictable from here on out. Here are the political questions likely to dominate the campaign over the next few weeks.

DEMOCRATS
1) IS HILLARY CLINTON IN DECENT SHAPE, EVEN IF SHE LOSES SOUTH CAROLINA ON THE 26TH?

Yes. Even with a stuttering start, guess who will be the delegate leader at the end of January?

Clinton.

That’s because only a handful of delegates are chosen this month — and Clinton is doing better than Obama among the super-delegate dignitaries that gain automatic admission to the convention and comprise almost 20 percent of the delegate total. February is when the selection of the convention nominee really begins.

As well as he’s doing so far — and despite his surprise loss in New Hampshire, he’s still off to a formidable start — Obama’s problem is that Democrats’ delegates are decided proportionally, by congressional district. That means that even if a candidate loses a state by 60–40 percent, he or she still gets 40 percent of the delegates in the primary. If the split is 55–45 percent, sometimes the rules end up splitting the delegate count 50–50.

So both front-runners can keep the delegate count close, even while finishing second in a number of states. But if the race stays tight, as analysts such as Jay Cost have noted, Clinton has a built-in advantage — due to those super-delegates who are far more likely to support the “establishment” candidate, which is, of course, her. In other words, to win, Obama has to defeat Clinton decisively. A protracted give-and-take primary campaign will likely hand the nomination to Clinton.

2) IS EDWARDS FINISHED?
Sadly, yes, unless he can somehow find a way to win the South Carolina primary. He won it in ’04 — but that was against a far less formidable field. Without a victory in January, his money will dry up and he won’t get enough votes on February 5 to continue credibly, no matter whether he formally stays in or not.

Who Edwards’s supporters end up backing, by the way, will go a long way toward determining the Democratic nominee. Right now, it’s uncertain.

REPUBLICANS
1) WHERE DOES MIKE HUCKABEE GO FROM HERE?

It’s unclear. His Iowa victory came largely due to the heavy support he received from evangelicals, and they won’t comprise as high a percentage of the GOP electorate elsewhere. Even if he doesn’t win Michigan on January 15 or South Carolina on January 19, Huckabee can still survive as a kind of Southern regional candidate for a while, as long as he’s finished close to the top in a state or two. But without that Palmetto State victory — and then some victories up north on February 5 — he won’t be the nominee.

2) IS ROMNEY FINISHED?
Most likely. He can stay in the race as long as he’s willing to write checks to himself. But even if he wins Michigan next Tuesday, he’s got a long and implausible road back.

3) WILL GIULIANI’S “WAIT UNTIL THE BIG STATES” STRATEGY WORK?
Quite possibly — we’ll know on January 29, when Florida votes. But by the time we get to Florida, Romney and Fred Thompson are likely to be non-factors, and the loser of the South Carolina primary won’t be looking great, either. That leaves Giuliani a pretty open field. His problem is that, if McCain is the next-to-last man left, he’s a formidable opponent. But a Giuliani victory in Florida, or even in the big states beyond, isn’t impossible, particularly if Huckabee can knock off McCain in either Michigan or South Carolina.

3) IS MCCAIN THE FRONT-RUNNER?
Not only is he the front-runner, he has a shot at wrapping up the nomination more quickly than people realize. Admittedly, it’s a big “if,” but if he can win Michigan next week (he won it in 2000), win South Carolina the next (he has a lot of support there), and beat Giuliani in Florida on the 29th, he will be the last man standing — even before we get to Super Tuesday. Unlike the Democrats’ delegate process, Republicans favor winner-take-all primaries, which tends to bring their races to conclusion faster.

THE FIELD
REPUBLICANS
JOHN McCAIN

Odds: 5-4 | past week: 8-3
RUDY GIULIANI
Odds: 3-1 | 7-2
MIKE HUCKABEE
Odds: 5-1 | 6-1
MITT ROMNEY
Odds: 12-1 | 3-1
FRED THOMPSON
Odds: 15-1 | 8-1
RON PAUL
Odds: 200-1 | same
DUNCAN HUNTER
Odds: 2 million-1 | 200,000-1
ALAN KEYES
Odds: 60 billion-1 | 60 million-1

DEMOCRATS
HILLARY CLINTON

Odds: 1-2 | past week: 1-3
BARACK OBAMA
Odds: 2-1 | 5-1
JOHN EDWARDS
Odds: 75-1 | 9-1
BILL RICHARDSON
Odds: 10,000-1 | 200-1
DENNIS KUCINICH
Odds: 2 million-1 | 100,000-1
MIKE GRAVEL
Odds: 32 million-1 | 16 million-1
JOE BIDEN
Odds: withdrew
CHRIS DODD
Odds: withdrew

On the Web
The Presidential Tote Board blog: //www.thephoenix.com/toteboard

COMMENTS

Steven - I think, over time, you have been the most astute observer of the political scene. However, today, I think you are somewhat too wedded to "conventional wisdom" in describing the Democratic race. Yes, recent experience would indicate that the "outsider/insurgent" candidate would fade over time. But this time, the "outsider/insurgent" candidate (Obama) is funded as well or better than the "establishment" candidate (Clinton). Also, he has as good or better advisers and organization (as recently as Monday) the Clinton team was literally imploding). (And I'll take David Axelrod over Mark Penn any day.) How many times has an "insurgent" had the street smarts, toughness, and money power of the Chicago Democratic organization behind him - fully the equal of Clinton's New York/Washington folks. Plus, in a raw political sense, the "insurgent" is just a better candidate. I'm not at all suggesting Monday's "tears" were contrived, but however they happened, that's a one-time fluke that won't/can't happen again. Plus, I think Obama is going to morph - to some extent - into the "establishment" candidate himself. There are credible reports that a number of U.S. Senators are about to endorse him. John Kerry did today. Plus, when Edwards drops out, as he must, unlike your feeling, I think the overwhelming majority of his support will go to Obama. Edwards said it himself Saturday night...he and Barack are the candidates of "change", Hillary is the candidate of the "status quo". Finally - and this is a gut feel on my part - I think there's a huge shoe waiting to drop. I think - at some point before Feb. 5th - Al Gore will endorse Obama. Gore jumped in too early in 2004 with Howard Dean, but I think he'll jump in when the time is right in 2008, when it can really make a difference. And there's no love lost between him and the Clintons. Bottom line, I think it's still a horse race, but I think you're selling Obama's chances short. You're saying Hillary is 1-2, and Obama is 2-1. I'd take that bet. Enjoy your writings! Keep up the good work.

POSTED BY Vic in Chicago AT 01/10/08 2:29 PM
Vic, you hit it right on the head. He is like a robot of corporate media sellouts. He's terrible, he had RON PAUL at 1,000,000 to 1 odds. I wanted to book the bet and put real money down. Never heard from him. This whole column, typical phoney baloney talk about the boring horse race without having a clue what real people care about or any real talk of what makes the candidates worth voting for or not. As if we don't get enough of this crap on the corporate news tv. The Phoenix could do much better. It's to bad, I've stopped picking up their free paper. It's convenient but just not readable. Next to no coverage of Ron Paul. And he is one of the top candidates with the Phoenix demographic, which has to make one wonder. It's to bad, The Phoenix used to be readable and at least tried to pretend to cater to their audience. I still like some of the music stories but Stark makes me avoid it every thursday, I say no thanks. I guess they don't care about anybody but Obama and Hillary lovers. I'll never ignore corruption and vote for crooks. And I am not alone. Ron Paul did get 9% of the vote and spent less money than all but Huckabee. He still has the money in the bank. I'd love to see Steve talk about my demo, you know the ones that are pissed off progressives that know Hillary and Bill took bribes to give coke dealers Presidential Pardons. That we know that Bill takes money from foreign governments enemies of the USA. That Barack Obama with Rudy, McCain, Huckabee Hillary are all on the non partisan, corporate corruption list for being the most corrupt pols of the year. Funny how that info never becomes conventional wisdom when hacks like Tony Stark run the media. But that's not his thing, he just re-hashes corporate talking point horse race BS. Boring and tired. And he's not even good at that. Because my odds 6 months ago look much better now? I called that Ron Paul should be at 20 to 1. He had him at 1,000,000 to 1. Put down a hundred which I offered and the payout if he wins would have been 100,000,000? His odds have changed. Still out of whack for RON PAUL but who was right little old me or Tony Stark? I wonder is Tony on the payroll of another candidate? Anybody know his history?

POSTED BY Mike C AT 01/13/08 4:04 AM
What makes or breaks the leader of the free world is their ability to negotiate. This takes Obama's natural diplomatic gifts and flair for thinking critically about world affairs. It is to do it an injustice to equate it with the kind of craven, pusillanimous brand of compromise we can expect from Hillary Clinton.

POSTED BY gordon AT 01/16/08 5:00 AM
Hillary Clinton realizes that for her the time is now or never. For Obama it may be now, four years from now, or eight years. His time is destined to come. What Clinton won't admit is that the presidency is not an opportunity for personal fulfillment. You can't just do it because you want to. You must be good for the nation.

POSTED BY gordon AT 01/16/08 6:14 PM

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