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A Poll Sure to Shake Up the Psychology of the Race If Nothing Else: ABC/Washington Post Poll Has Obama Ahead in Iowa

    A new ABC/Washington Post poll has Obama ahead for the first time in Iowa since a Newsweek poll showed him with a similar lead in September.
    The results for the top three:

     Obama 30%
     Clinton 26%
``  Edwards 22%

    The main import of the poll -- besides giving a psychological boost to the Obama campaign -- is to deliver a blow to Edwards. If it looks like he can't compete with the top two, will he lose further support?
    Rasmussen is in the field polling Iowa right now. That poll is sure to receive a lot of attention in the next few days to see if this is some kind of aberration or represents a trend. And, just to put a little spin on it, the last ABC/Washington Post Iowa poll at the end of July had Obama ahead by 1%, at a time when other pollsters had Clinton way in front of Obama in the Hawkeye state. So, we'll see.
  • LorenzoJennifer said:

    Democratic Party delegate selection procedures allow more than one "winner" in Iowa and every state holding a primary or caucus in 2008.  Democratic delegates are selected on the basis of proportional representation - that is, a candidate is awarded a number of delegates that reflects their percentage share of the popular vote.  If a state primary/caucus has, for example, 30 delegates available, a candidate getting 50% of the popular vote gets 50% of the delegates - 15.  A candidate getting 30% of the popular vote gets 30% of the delegates - 9, and so on.  (In Iowa, though, a candidate must clear a percentile threshhold or the candidate listed as the voter's second choice on the under-performing ballots is moved up to first choice position on the discarded ballot of candidates who do not meet the minimum. Darned if I can find how many delegates are selected by popular vote in the January caucuses or the popular vote percentage a candidate must have to get any delegates at all.  Research continuing . . . )  

    BTW . . . all the more reason for Mass. to hold its's primaries in March, as scheduled.  Chances are a Democratic candidate by then will not have a delegate total high enough to clear the nomination.  (Republican primaries are held on a winner-take-all basis, though).

    November 20, 2007 7:19 AM

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