October 31, 2007
The always astute Jay Cost at RealClearPolitics has an interesting post this afternoon whose headline speaks for itself:
“A Junkie's Debate...And Nothing More.” And Jay is right in a way – though to paraphrase Bill Clinton, it depends on what the meaning of junkie is.
As we wrote before the debate,
the real importance of this debate was the effect it would have on Iowa voters choosing who should carry the banner of the anti-Hillary forces -- a decision that would have a key spillover effect elsewhere. And, at this point in the campaign – with only two months to go until the caucuses – just about every Democrat who plans to participate in Iowa (remember this is a caucus state – not a primary state) is something of a junkie. They may not have tuned in directly last night but the buzz of that debate lingers there today.
It’s also true that the media is now swooning with “Hillary Has Fallen” talk when all she’s done is descend from the pedestal they put her on in the first place. But she does have a problem today she didn't have yesterday: Once you’re tagged as a “panderer” and a “waffler,” it’s very difficult to shake the perception because – let’s face it – all politicians are in the profession of pandering. It’s just some get caught – or at least don’t do it as skillfully as others.
Cost has been warning us all along that the media has its own scenarios and what counts is when people actually start voting. He’s right, of course. But in Iowa, the voting does start soon and voters are beginning to pay closer attention. As we said earlier today, in the next debate in two weeks, we'll begin to see whether and how developments from last night have taken hold.
October 31, 2007
More problems for Hillary: Now
Quinnipiac joins
Rasmussen in also showing Rudy ahead of her in the national numbers. (McCain is tied with her.)
Electability began to become an issue last night -- and we can expect to hear more about it from Hillary's opponents in the days ahead. The problem is that her two main Democratic opponents aren't really doing statistically better -- though Obama does manage to squeak by Giuliani by a single point in this latest Quinnipiac survey. (For the record,
we've already stated our opinion that Edwards is the Dems' strongest general election candidate.)
It's a year from the election and the Democrats have a problem: You'd think they'd be way ahead, given the unpopularity of the incumbent. But they need to find an electable candidate, should Giulani or even McCain get the GOP nod.
October 31, 2007
October 31, 2007
There will undoubtedly be plenty
of analysis in the morning. And, as we noted before the debate, this
event should be judged in tandem with the next debate in mid-November,
with an eye towards seeing which Democrat emerges in Iowa and New
Hampshire as Hillary's principal challenger.
Nevertheless, some quick reactions: Edwards helped
himself the most in this encounter by reinforcing his image as the
leading liberal populist challenger to Clinton. He could have done a
slightly better job of tying himself to some prior Democratic "greats"
such as Robert Kennedy but his criticisms of Hillary were pointed and
articulate while still seeming presidential. If this election is really
about change and a new direction, Edwards "the outsider" articulated
that theme the most effectively and with the most optimism (an attitude
in short supply among candidates in both parties).
After an awkward start, Obama, a work in progress,
hit his stride midway and was able to present himself as a different
kind of politician -- though he still often seems and sounds a tad too
senatorial for his own good. Dodd and Biden were at their best
(especially Dodd!), though they're still terribly unlikely to win;
Richardson and Kucinich just took up space and time, as usual.
Hillary had her worst debate yet -- and not simply
because she was on the defensive. She sounded almost brittle and quite
one-dimensional -- a figure of the past, not the future. For the first
time, one could imagine her losing -- and not just to a Republican. She was too clever by half.
All in all, it was Edwards' night. It will be
interesting to see how the press plays it because so far in this
campaign, the media have been unwilling to give the former North
Carolina senator his due. After tonight, they should.
October 30, 2007
October 30, 2007
October 30, 2007
October 29, 2007
My colleague David Bernstein has the latest poll from South Carolina which seems to show an upsurge of support for Mitt Romney.
If it's true (a big if) and if it holds (a bigger if), Mitt is putting himself in a position to run the table in January. And, if that happens, it's just about over -- even before we get to Super Tuesday on February 5.
October 29, 2007
Polls obviously don't mean much at
this stage, a year before the election. But if Rudy Giuliani gets the
GOP nod, Democrats should not assume the cakewalk many are currently
assuming. I
n the latest Rasmussen match-up,
Giuliani now leads Clinton by two percentage points which, given the current
weak state of the GOP, is either a remarkable testament to Rudy,
awful weakness by Hillary (not that Obama is doing that well either) or
both.
If we were running the Edwards campaign, we'd be all
over this -- stressing his unique strength in the south again as a
means of arguing his electability.
October 25, 2007
John McCain is up with a
new ad in New Hampshire reprising his high moment from the recent GOP debate when he went after Hillary Clinton for attempting to fund a Woodstock museum. Yes, it was a great line and a great moment, drawing a standing ovation. And yes, it reminds us that McCain was a POW and war hero.
But Woodstock was, well, almost 40 years ago. GOP candidates were able to wave the bloody shirt for decades after the Civil War to get themselves elected. But does waving a tie-dye shirt work as well? This ad reminds voters that McCain is old – if elected he’d be the oldest person to assume the office for the first time in American history. In a campaign that has limited funds to spend on advertising and message, is this really the issue on which to take a stand?
One other thing: A lot’s been written about McCain’s staff. We’ll leave that to others but on the basis of this spot, he could definitely use a new keyboard player. Maybe that’s the point -- Jim Morrison is rolling over in his grave.
October 25, 2007
October 24, 2007
The
Politico's Ben Smith is reporting that an ad-hoc liberal group plans to run a campaign against Hillary Clinton in the early states by running at her from the left.
One has to wonder what's behind it -- particularly financially. But if it's kosher -- and the group ends up garnering significant funds -- it could obviously help Obama and Edwards. The key here is that a 3rd force can freely run negative ads that a contender can't -- chiefly because a contender will always be afraid of looking too divisive and because in a multi-candidate field, negative ads usually end up hurting both the sponsor of the ad and the target, benefiting a third candidate.
The bottom line is that the Democratic race may begin to get a less civilized in the days ahead.
October 24, 2007
Stephen Colbert would draw 13% nationally n the latest
Rasmussen Poll in a Clinton-Giuliani race, with Clinton winning
45%-35%. But it’s worth pointing out an important point the poll
illustrates, beyond Colbert's rather incredible showing. Virtually any third-party candidacy in 2008 is going to
hurt the Republicans. And there is likely to be one of these
candidacies next year, if not more.
That’s
because an independent candidate -- even a liberal one -- represents a
challenge to the status quo. (Hillary only led Giuliani by seven points
in a two-person race in a recent Rasmussen Poll.)
Unless the Republicans can somehow make the Democratic candidate the
virtual incumbent -- which frankly is an almost impossible task -- they
have to do everything they can to keep the influence of these
candidates marginal. That may be possible with, say, a Ron Paul. But if
there’s any TV celebrity who decides to “answer the call” -- whether
the last name is Dobbs, Colbert, or whatever -- the GOP’s chances will diminish dramatically.
October 23, 2007
October 22, 2007