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The Significance of the New Des Moines Register Poll That Has Obama and Huckabee Ahead

    This morning's latest numbers from the respected Des Moines Register poll, which voters in Iowa pay attention to:

    Obama: 28
    Clinton: 25
    Edwards: 23

    Huckabee 29
    Romney: 24
    Giuliani: 13

    The signficance:

    -- Romney is in trouble in Iowa. That isn't to say he can't come back but he's going to have to wage a fairly negative campaign to do it, which could hurt him in the long run. If this lead holds, Romney's campaign ends virtually as it begins.

    -- Obama has forged enough of a small lead in several polls in Iowa to be called the leader there now. What's happened is that both Edwards and Obama have gone after Clinton, with Obama being the principal beneficiary. At some point, Edwards has to make a move -- and start drawing distinctions between himself and Obama. What happens then will likely dictate the next shift in Iowa.

  • LorenzoJennifer said:

    "Lies, damn lies and statistics." - "Benjie" Disraeli.

    Gender and religious issues may be found in The Des Moines Register poll (news article appears in related link in AOL Welcome screen).  Obama is supported by 31% of women voters; Clinton with 26%.  While women tend to be very critical of other women, looks like Obama's genial and pleasant personality, lofty idealism and generalities, combined with a vicarious thrill to identify with an African-American may be having an effect.  Would logically think (heh, heh) that women would be as supportive of a woman candidate as African-Americans would be of an African-American candidate.  As Sister Sledge sang, "We are family . . . I got all my sisters with me."  Well, Hillary's got 26%!  

    Huckabee has 38% support from social and religious conservative voters to Romney's 22%. Rapid research in Iowa religious demographics finds "other Christians" at 1% (non-Protestant, non-Catholic) and "other religions" at 6%.  Not able to readily locate how many Mormons in Iowa.  Romney's relatively low numbers may indicate residual resistance to a Mormon candidate.

    December 3, 2007 2:01 PM

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