The Phoenix Network:
About  |  Advertise
Moonsigns  |  BandGuide  |  Blogs

McCain Has Only One Scenario to Victory and the Odds Aren't Good

With Barack Obama continuing to hold about a five-point lead in most public opinion polls, the only road to victory for John McCain is that all the undecideds break his way. That's the argument Dick Morris is making, for example. He says that Obama is virtually assumed to be the victor now -- and has thus been "incumbentized" -- which means there could well be a shift against him in the final hours.

For that to happen, our view is that there will have to be a substantial "Bradley" effect -- where large numbers of white voters have been afraid to tell pollsters that they won't vote for Obama -- out of fear of being thought racist.

We've obviously never had a black candidate before so we don't know how this will all play out. But McCain essentially now needs to draw to an inside straight to win.




  • LorenzoJennifer said:

    The Bradley Effect may (hopefully NOT) combine with the Glass Ceiling.  Most voters may not have an issue in electing persons of color to local, state or federal offices. Our state's exemplary history includes the election of Deval Patrick as Governor, Ralph C. Martin II as Suffolk County District Attorney (1992-2002) and Edward W. Brooke III as US Senator (1967-79) - - all eminently qualified candidates who happened to be African-Americans.  What about the presidency, though?  Hillary Clinton's campaign had to deal with the Glass Ceiling that prevents women candidates from attaining the highest elective office in the land. Barack Obama may now face the same issue in a racial context. Over 40 years have passed since the landmark Civil Rights legislation of the 1960s. We have come a long way, no question.  But have we come far enough to elect a person of color as our President?

    November 1, 2008 5:05 PM
  • TougueInCheek said:

    But have we come far enough to elect a person who can do the job right? :P

    We've voted for less then impressive before, pity the choice is between two less then impressive :P

    November 2, 2008 9:56 AM
  • LorenzoJennifer said:

    Each major party candidate impresses in his own way.  The presidency is all about leadership and Barack Obama leads by inspiration.  John McCain is a command-and-control type as befits a decorated Navy fighter pilot and third generation Annapolis graduate.

    Obama has eased himself into our awareness by introducing himself with 2 best selling books, a personal memoir writ in 1995 and a political  policy text in 2006.  His "big break" came when he was "discovered" by Executive Producer(?) John Kerry as keynote speaker for the 2004 Democratic National Convention. A star was born to rave reviews. It's easy to like Barack. He's a spell-binding orator, co-operative and non-confrontational, genial, deferential, "cool" and telegenic, a lawyer more prone to mediation than litigation, and easy on the eyes, ears and other sensibilities. He caresses the mind. He continues to be the White man's version of what the Black politician should be like. A lot has to do with  his mask. Persons of color must somehow devise a mask to negotiate their identity with America's White society. Probably passive-aggressive to begin with, Barack chose the course of lesser resistance. Not to say that he's an actor or poseur. Not at all. He reached within himself and brought forward those pre-existing and genuine personality characteristics that would help him advance. The lengthy primary/caucus and convention season enabled more and more viewers and voters to see him in a presidential context, making it easier to vote for him on November 4.

    Compare his national arrival with that of Sarah Palin. Rescued from obscurity in a daring raid by Machine Gun McCain, she initially shocked and awed a lot of people with her tomboy frontier talents and beauty pageant good looks. McCain - - the command-and-control guy - - kept her under tight wraps and carefully managed her public appearances. "Miss Congeniality" soon came under withering criticism for her inexperience, inability to lead, coversational ineptness and other perceived faults. Sister Sarah still struggles to recover.

    Obama cast himself in his own drama and set his own stage. Palin was written into someone else's script and pushed onto someone else's stage (Johnny Mac). If Barack had sprung into political awareness as did Sarah, he wouldn't be where he is now.

    November 2, 2008 6:20 PM

Leave a Comment

Login | Not a member yet? Click here to Join


Wednesday, December 31, 2008  |  Sign In  |  Register
Phoenix Media/Communications Group:
Copyright © 2008 The Phoenix Media/Communications Group