In Massachusetts

We confirmed that the state Republican Party should not be taken seriously as a major political party. Earlier this year, when people like me mocked their anemic candidate recruitment -- they couldn't even make a serious play for open seats in winnable districts -- they assured us that they had "quality over quantity."

I thought John McCain's speech was exceptionally gracious. I thought Barack Obama's speech was very good. I thought the moment was phenomenal. I'm not sure what happens when the actual governing starts, but for a moment -- notably, in the midst of a multi-year ebb in the national self-esteem -- it was nice to feel good about ourselves.

Since we learned the nominees, I have said that Obama would win "comfortably" over McCain. But two months ago -- on the heels of the Palin pick -- I upped my prediction to a blowout in which Obama would win 35 states. I have repeated that prediction steadfastly.

It is not to be -- just the "comfortable" win.

Obama has, at this hour, won all 20 states that John Kerry won (including DC), plus seven: Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico.

MSNBC has called the New Hampshire Senate race for Jeanne Shaheen over incumbent John Sununu. Susan Collins has bucked the anti-GOP trend and defeated Tom Allen in Maine. Oh, and elsewhere in New England, they're calling Massachusetts for Kerry. And Beatty seemed so optimistic earlier today!

In other US Senate news, Kay Hagan looks very strong to replace Libby Dole in North Carolina, although I haven't seen it called yet.

Looking at national exit polls on voting in US House races is tricky -- it isn't a one-to-one correspondence to the number of elected congressmen. But it's something.

In 2004, the national exit polls showed voters barely favoring the GOP in US House votes, by maybe 1%; in reality, the spread was close to 7 percentage points, and the seats went 232-202 for the Republicans.

Lots of caveats today about the exit polls -- especially considering A) the '04 debacle where everyone thought Kerry had won, and B) the huge number of Obama-heavy early voters.

Still, from what I've seen and been told, the exit polls show a big win for Obama.

The networks are not calling Indiana, and might not for a while -- and the numbers getting flashed on screen might not look good, because heavily-Obama Lake County closed later than the rest -- but the exits say Obama won it easy.

If you're one of those antsy, can't-stand-the-waiting types, after 6:00 go to this link.

This is the election-return site for a congressional race in the Ft. Wayne area of Indiana; polls close in this district at 6:00 ET. It's a heavy Republican area, where Bush won by a wide margin in 2004.

Incumbent Republican congressman Mark Souder has a tough fight on his hands from Democratic challenger Michael Montagano.

I got a few questions in by email that I'll respond to here -- and hey, you can all feel free to keep asking me anything even though it's technically not "ask me anything day."

"Alissa" asks:

1. What happens if someone submits an absentee ballot (or votes early) then dies? Is the vote still counted?

2. What time will it all be over tonight?

Interested in what the folks on my "25 Scariest Conservatives" list are saying today?

Amanda Carpenter reports on voter fraud, or something, in Philadelphia.

Matt Drudge has a top link of Hillary Clinton caught politicking illegally at a polling place.

Rush Limbaugh just started his show ranting and raving against the "drive-by media" and their pollsters -- and then blamed problems with military ballots on the "career liberals" in the Pentagon.

The networks, as well as the rest of the media, will have some decisions to make tonight if, as I have long predicted, this is a lopsided victory for Obama.

Consider this. Virginia and most of Florida close at 7:00 -- and a huge number of Florida's votes are in early anyway; if Obama wins both by 5 points or more, the networks will be able to call them pretty quickly.

Election Day is finally upon us. I've been writing and talking about this Presidential election for a long time -- since before the last one, in fact. In the late summer and early fall of 2004, Mitt Romney opened political action committees in several states that hold early primaries and caucuses; Romney used those state PACs to funnel money from his wealthy backers to the campaign funds of Republican officeholders, office-seekers, and county party committees all over Iowa, New Hampshire, and Michigan prior to that '04 election, in hopes of building goodwill for his upcoming run for the big office.

Republican former Massachusetts Governor William Weld is endorsing Barack Obama, the Associated Press reports.

Weld released a statement calling Obama "the best candidate to move our country forward," and will announce the endorsement publicly later this morning in Salem, New Hampshire.

Weld has long been an advocate for "big-tent" Republican inclusion, to include supporters of gay rights, abortion rights, and other socially moderate positions.

The new national Pew poll, one of my faves, has Obama ahead by 14 points -- and the data just gets worse for McCain the deeper you go. It's particularly worth noting that people now believe, by a wide margin, that Obama will win; that assumption makes it easier to imagine him as President, which makes it harder to imagine him as a terrorist-coddling Marxist.

CNN's all-knowing John King reported yesterday that the McCain campaign has essentially conceded Colorado, along with two other states that Bush won in '04: Iowa and New Mexico. McCain is now forced to put all his eggs into an unlikely (but possible) comeback in Pennsylvania.

Here's his problem. Those three states add 21 electoral college votes to the Obama column.

Massachusetts is back on the rise! ...as the nation's leading bogeyman of godless lefty secularism, that is.

Down in North Carolina, where Democratic state senator Kay Hagan is threatening to boot US Senator Elizabeth Dole, a new 2 1/2 minute NRSC ad warns that Hagan is IN THE POCKET OF GODLESS MASSACHUSETTS ATHEISTS!!!!!!!!!