Stephen Buoniconti, as long suspected, announced his candidacy for Hampden DA, making him the 8th Massachusetts state senator -- out of 40 -- to opt out of running for re-election. Two other seats are currently vacant, soon to be filled via special election.

In other words, at least a quarter of the senate is turning over this year -- and as of January at least 40% will be new since the start of 2009.

In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- I write a two-item column on local politics.

First, I look at the potential for a primary challenge to Congressman Stephen Lynch. Lynch, never a favorite of the liberals, drove many over the edge with his vote against the health care reform bill.

I've had a theory for oh, maybe six months, that I've talked about with a number of people (including a few members of Congress and staffers) but have not publicly pontificated on. So, I'm now going to lay it out (a bit below), under the pretext of commenting on Kevin Drum, who in turn is commenting on Ezra Klein. Both smart folks, but both missing some of the lay of the land that I -- a self-anointed leading national expert on what I've dubbed the "movement conservative marketplace" -- know better than they.

Later today, the University of Massachusetts Board of Trustees will announce the search committee that will find a new university president, to replace Jack Wilson. Wilson announced earlier this month that he will leave the position at the end of his current term, in June 2011 -- needless to say, the Patrick administration intends to complete the process of selecting his successor before the end of this year, just in case there's another governor in place come January.

Yet another state legislator is not running for re-election this year, and it's a biggie: senate Ways & Means chair Steve Panagiotakos of Lowell. Here's the Globe and the Sun with the story.

That makes three open senate Democratic leadership positions come January: Ways and Means chair; Assistant Majority Leader (currently Joan Menard); and Majority Whip (currently Maureen Walsh).

In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- I write a two-part column on Boston politics.

In the first item, I ask whether Boston City Councilor Steve Murphy's campaign for state Treasurer is his last shot at higher office. Murph's quest for other jobs is a running joke -- and occasional campaign issue -- at City Hall.

Mike Lake is running for state Auditor at just 31 years old, which has prompted questions about his experience -- and whether he may be inflating his bio to make himself appear more qualified than he is.

After looking into it, and speaking with Lake, I would say that the answer may lie in the eye of the beholder -- or perhaps in the sometimes subtle distinction between implication and inference.

Charlie Baker just held a conference-call press conference, in which he criticized Tim Cahill for accepting contributions from pension fund managers who get business from the Treasurer's office -- which was recently reported in the Boston Globe (by Walter Robinson's talented journo students).

Baker is calling on Cahill to disclose and provide details about the placement agents that the Treasurer's office uses to select pension-fund managers, and to fully disclose all campaign contributors from those agents.

Often in politics, certain messages are strategically wise at one point (say, during a primary contest) but strategically foolish at another (ie, during the general-election campaign). It can be very difficult for a candidate or a party to pivot from one set of messages to another -- even if they are smart enough to realize that they should.

In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- I consider how the Big Dig, aka Original Sin of Massachusetts Politics, is once again at issue in this year's state elections.

Not only do we have Democrats pounding Republican gubernatorial candidate Charlie Baker for his alleged complicity in the project's financial shenanigans, but we have two former member of the Turnpike Authority running for statewide office.

From the latest National Journal poll of Democratic and Republican Congressional Insiders, both sides believe passage of the health care reform bill helps their side in the November elections:

Q: If Congress enacts something close to President Obama's latest health care reform plan, how would that affect your party in the midterm elections?

Earlier today I taped a couple of weekend "Eye On Politics" segments with Jon Keller that will air on WBZ radio over the weekend. In the Saturday piece, Jon asked me about Governor Deval Patrick taking his first big public swing at challenger Charlie Baker this week -- saying Baker has been "missing in action" on the issue of health care costs

There are only 6 women currently serving as state governors -- 3 Dems, 3 Repubs -- after Obama grabbed a couple for his cabinet and Sarah Palin resigned for... whatever the hell her reasons were. But there are lots and lots of opportunities this year: 37 states will hold gubernatorial elections, with the majority of those seats open due to term limits, retirements, or seeking other office.

Here's an interesting bit of trivia, culled from data kept by the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers: no woman has won a GOP primary for an open US Senate seat since 2002 (Elizabeth Dole).

This streak will be tested this year, thanks to a whopping 11 open Senate seats -- five with departing Dems, six GOP.

The hopes appear to rest on two women; the other 9 races have just a couple of completely non-viable female in them on the Republican side.

Shira Toeplitz of Roll Call has a good piece up about House Republicans' failure to recruit female candidates, which gives me the excuse I've been looking for to blog some more about one of my favorite pet topics, the extinction of the elected female Republican.

As Toeplitz points out, there are quite a number of women running as Republicans, but mostly as also-rans or in hopeless races against safe incumbent Democrats.