Q&A #2 -- Who Gets 15%?

"Boston Bertie" asks:

Looking forward to the Democratic Convention in June - couple of questions:

1. Will Grace Ross get the 15% to get on the ballot? And if so, where do these delegates come from - Tim Cahill Supporters in Norfolk County, maybe?

2. Will Mike Lake get his 15% and make the ballot in a tough three-way fight for delegates for Sate Auditor?

The convention includes an awful lot of real lefties, and I think Ross has a good shot at getting her 15% from them. I also get the sense that Patrick's people really aren't pushing too hard to keep her off -- although obviously they don't want her getting a big number that looks like an embarrassing repudiation from the party (as John Kerry arguably got in '08).

Lake is a tougher call; I get the impression that there's not a whole lot of deep love for either Guy Glodis or Suzanne Bump, and as things inevitably get a little nasty between those two I can imagine a number of delegates turning to Lake. If I was to guess right now I'd say he won't make it to 15%, but who knows.