Senate Blowout Potential?

Published May 20 2008, 06:30 PM by David S. Bernstein

After the 2006 elections, I wrote of reasons to think that the country was about to enter a period of Democratic Party ascendance. (Quite a prescient piece, I might add.) One of my points was that, due largely to which seats were coming due for re-election -- just 12 Democrats compared with 21 Republicans -- the Democrats were likely to make significant gains in the US Senate in 2008.

They will certainly gain: only a couple of Democratic seats are even slightly vulnerable (Louisiana and New Jersey), while several currently Republican seats (Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Oregon) are considered likely, or at least possible, Democratic pick-ups.

But with voter contempt for Republicans seemingly limitless, and hints of enormous Democratic turnout for the Presidential election (particularly among blacks and young adults), there is also the possibility that this could turn into a perfect storm wiping out Republicans nationwide.

The evidence has been mounting that, at least for this snapshot moment, another group of Republican seats appears to be in play: Alaska, North Carolina, and -- wonder of wonders -- Mississippi.

Mississippi has the 22nd Republican seat at risk: the one that Trent Lott left at the end of 2007. He was replaced by a carefully selected heir, former US Rep. Roger Wicker, who must now face election in November. As you may know, Mississippi voters last week elected a Democrat to replace Wicker, in a shocking upset. Now, a survey has Democrat Ronnie Musgrove (former gov.) eight points ahead of Wicker for the Senate seat -- in a partisan (DSCC) poll, but stunning nonetheless.

Other GOP-held seats, in Kentucky, Tennessee, and Georgia for instance, could easily become vulnerable if things continue on this path. It's obviously still a long way from election day, but for now the storm is building.