August 29, 2008
I flew back to sea level today after learning the big news, and spent much of my journey home pondering it and discussing it with people in airports and on planes. My initial reaction, which I still hold, was, "well, that should ensure that Obama wins 40 states."
It's a Hail Mary pass, and although I thought that he probably needs one, I didn't believe he would make one; I thought he would make a safe pick and keep hammering away and hope for the best.
I have plenty of thoughts about the political ramifications, and what Obama should do, and what to watch for, and those sorts of things that I normally analyze. But at this hour I feel the need to express not the political analysis, but my increasing personal outrage over this announcement.
This selection, so obviously political, so obviously insulting and condescending to women (I can make the right-wingers happy, and win swing votes because broads will vote for a dame!), is ultimately a flat-out statement that John McCain doesn't give a rat's ass about this country.
Nobody can say with a straight face that John McCain thinks that Sarah Palin is capable and prepared to be President. I don't just mean that the political reasons were more important to him than the readiness factor; I mean that he cannot possibly think that she is at all capable and qualified.
Let me put this simply: John McCain has put his political ambition above the good of the country.
The observation, made by many today, that this pick makes it harder for McCain to attack Obama's lack of "experience," is correct but far too generous. Comparisons of Palin's experience and qualifications to Obama's are a gross insult.
Barack Obama is a Harvard Law graduate who spent years in successful non-profit service, spent seven years representing much of the nation's third-largest city in the upper legislative house of one of the state's most populous states, and has then represented that state as US Senator.
Comparisons to Dan Quayle are also way off: Quayle had a long and impressive political resume when Bush the Elder picked him.
Palin? Up until a couple of years ago, her resume featured a BA in journalism, some commercial fishing, a little TV sportscasting, and a little local political success in a town roughly the size of Boxborough.
It is an outrage that John McCain would place this person next in line to be President.
Whether that matters politically remains to be seen; Obama and other Democrats probably need to step gingerly on making this point, for fear of looking sexist -- particularly coming on the heels of the whole Hillary thing.
Fortunately, my guess is that if the Democrats just keep their mouths shut, lifelong misogynist John McCain will end up demeaning her himself -- perhaps he can suggest that she enter the Miss Buffalo Chip pageant?
August 29, 2008
Carl Cameron of FOX News just reported that Tim Pawlenty is NOT the VP pick. So does that leave our man Mitt? Now the buzz is it might be Alaska's "Miss Congeniality" Sarah Palin -- FOX is also reporting that a "mystery flight" flew from Anchorage to Dayton (where the announcement is scheduled in a few hours) overnight.
August 29, 2008
Do you know in Gillette Stadium, that slim rally/ad strip that runs all the way across from end zone to end zone, between the lower stands and the private box level -- the one that flashes things like "DEE-FENSE!" and "MAKE SOME NOISE!" during the action, and ads for beer and anti-perspirant during the breaks? Invesco Field has something similar, except it's four sets of four slim panels -- anyway, the point is that during Obama's speech those panels were saying things like "Obama/Change/You Can/Believe In," and sometimes the message would change, and sometimes it would flash when people were expected to cheer a lot. And then, when Obama got to the part of the speech about how he and McCain should not question each others' love for America, and "let us agree that patriotism has no party," all 16 panels changed to: "AMERICA." With an Obama logo. And you noticed everyone had flags to wave, right? Good gravy this man loves this country!
Which was, I hope you'll recall, the answer to my number-one rhetorical question I expected to be repeatedly answered at the convention.
I would say that it lined up pretty much as I anticipated, including the extraordinarily populist nature of his acceptance speech -- a speech I thought was not great as a speech, but probably effective for the political need. Obama needed to counter the fears, stoked by the GOP, that he is "other." To do so, he had to turn it around and say no, I'm the guy who understands everyday struggles, the man of the people, in contrast to Mr. Many-Homes McCain -- who, as Obama said tonight, doesn't get it.
I actually thought the best thing of the night, and maybe of the convention, was the handful of "regular people" who went up and told their stories. They were fantastic, especially in the middle of all these robotic automaton politicos -- although I suppose we'll probably find out that the guy isn't really named Barney Smith, they just gave him that name to make the joke work.
The risky night at Invesco, and the entire week, went off pretty much without a hitch, which was in itself a testiment to Obama's leadership skills -- these things always have a million moving parts, and this one in particular. For example, the last-minute arrangements of the roll-call vote screwed up all of Wednesday's schedule, prompting changes on the fly -- including Bill Richardson getting bumped to Thursday. Tuesday night, of course, the man beinig paid tribute to was not only trying to defy all medical wisdom by showing up and possibly even speaking; he also was hospitalized with kidney stones in a local Denver hospital even as the day's program was beginning. And of course the 85,000-person outdoor mega-rally could have been a disaster in any of a hundred different ways.
So, it's done. Maybe not memorably great, but certainly not memorably bad; historic, very positive, and probably watched by far more people than will bother to tune in to Senator Snooze and the Embarrassments -- more people will probably be glued to the Weather Channel, thinking of how the Republicans pissed on New Orleans the last time. Anyway, half the GOP elite isn't even going to go to the Twin Cities, for fear of being seen with a member of the Bush Administration; or near the Minneapolis Airport bathroom where Senator Toe-Tapper got arrested; or near the construction of the new bridge to replace the one that collapsed and killed 13 people and made everyone realize how the Republicans had neglected the nation's infrastructure.
August 28, 2008
**UPDATE: 10:48 pm - AOL's Political Machine blog states reporting unequivocally that Pawlenty is the nominee. Culture War quotes anonymous sources inside McCain Communications Staff and RNC as saying "95 percent sure" it's Pawlenty. Remember that sourcing, because McCain's sure to deny that his communication staff leaked the nomination tonight. And he'll be lying.
Despite the McCain camp swearing on their mothers that they wouldn't release a VP choice tonight -- the Obama camp already having compared such a low-blow to "political malpractice" -- it appears they've leaked it anyway, in a very sly way. Minneapolis Star-Tribune reports that Gov. Tim Pawlenty has cancelled all his Thursday interviews and returned to Minnesota; Huffington Post reports he's also been booked on Meet The Press this Sunday. The influential Republican blog Red State claims to have spoken to an unnamed McCain aide who said that the VP nom would "more likely than not" be Pawlenty -- the aide then reportedly added, with typocal Republican hypocrisy, that they really didn't want this news leaking tonight. Which of course is exactly why he said what he just said.
Earlier today, David Bernstein reported on Pawlenty's rebuttal speech in Denver: "yet another Republican with no foreign policy experience [who questions] Barack Obama's experience and judgment to be commander-in-chief."
August 28, 2008
VIDEO: Barack Obama, "The American Promise"
VIDEO: Obama: The Movie
VIDEO: Barney Smith, Not Smith Barney (or, for that matter, Barney Frank)
VIDEO: Al Gore at Invesco Field
VIDEO: John Legend and Will.I.Am, "Yes We Can" (Live at DNC/Invesco Field)
VIDEO: Stevie Wonder (Live at DNC/Invesco Field)
VIDEO: McCain TV ad congratulates Obama
DOWNLOAD: Barack Obama, "The American Promise" (DNC August 28, 2008) [mp3]
Below, David Bernstein is Twittering live from Invesco Field in Denver. Carly Carioli is blogging from the couch.
12:08 am: After all the talk, finally saw the McCain "thank you" ad (above) on CNN -- aired just after his press secretary said "no thank you" to the "he won't even follow Osama to the cave he lives in" line. Oopsie.
10:25 pm: Red State quotes unnamed McCain advisor -- Republican VP "more likely than not" is Pawlenty.
10:20 pm: "We are a better country than this."
10:19 pm: Bernstein via Twitter: Flashbulbs are going off around the stadium throughout the speech.
10:09 pm: While we're watching the most impressive political rally of our lifetimes, we are also looking out the corner of our eye for cues to McCain's VP. Earlier today, a Secret Service sweep of Romney's sister's house made him a brief favorite. Now Huffington Post is up with the story that Tim Pawlenty has cleared his schedule and been booked on Meet The Press this Sunday. Advantage: Pawlenty. OK, here's Barack . . .
9:46 pm: Bernstein, via Twitter: The press LOVED the Barney Smith - Smith Barney joke
9:44 pm: Bernstein, via Twitter: These regular people speakers are freakin' brilliant -- especially right when the crowd is fired up for the big O
9:19 pm: Wish-I'd-Thought-of-That Dept: voters text-vote on their top election issue; Dems display in interactive Google map.
9:06 pm: For a new-media campaign, they sure do love them some fucking horrible old-people music. Democrats: we give you the best white Ray Charles impersonator American money can buy!
9:03 pm: Bernstein, via Twitter: "Security presence visibly increasing."
9:03 pm: CNN: Invesco sold out, thousands waiting outside, fire marshall says final crowd may top 90,000. Obama camp may have given away 20,000 more tix than capacity
8:50 pm: Gore's pocket version of the Inconvenient Truth speech: still one of the greatest booga-booga moments in American oratory.
8:47 pm: Love Al Gore, but did he just say that if he'd have been president, he would've captured Osama by now?
8:23 pm: Obama's acceptance speech will end on a strong national-defence note: "I will end this war in Iraq responsibly, and finish the fight against al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan. I will rebuild our military to meet future conflicts. But I will also renew the tough, direct diplomacy that can prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. I will build new partnerships to defeat the threats of the 21st century: terrorism and nuclear proliferation; poverty and genocide; climate change and disease. And I will restore our moral standing so that America is once more the last, best hope for all who are called to the cause of freedom, who long for lives of peace, and who yearn for a better future."
8:18 pm: According to advance text of speech, Obama to make a shocking, man-on-the-moon type promise: end US dependence on foreign oil within the next decade.
8:15 pm: New York Times has excerpts from Obama's speech: It begins: "Four years ago, I stood before you and told you my story – of the brief union between a young man from Kenya and a young woman from Kansas who weren't well-off or well-known, but shared a belief that in America, their son could achieve whatever he put his mind to.
"It is that promise that has always set this country apart – that through hard work and sacrifice, each of us can pursue our individual dreams but still come together as one American family, to ensure that the next generation can pursue their dreams as well. . . . "
8:01 pm: My wife, a Hillary supporter who'd been grudgingly drifting towards Obama, says this . . . this is the final straw: making us sit through Sheryl Crow. "That's it, I'm officially voting for McCain."
7:40 pm: Bernstein, via Twitter: "Don't know how will.i.am & john legend came across on TV, but it was moving in the stadium"
6:13 pm: Bernstein, via Twitter: "That Hudson girl has some pipes, huh?"
6:08 pm: Bernstein, via Twitter: "The Mass. delegation has the absolute worst seats of any state."
5:32 pm: Bernstein, via Twitter: "Everyone I talk to is stoked for Stevie Wonder -- he's scheduled for around 8:30 ET"
August 28, 2008
Hey Adam: so if Gallup's three-day rolling average lead was to suddenly spike, say, from 1 point to six points once Wednesday' polling enters the picture, that probably would mean a huge bump just from the first half of the convention, wouldn't it?
August 28, 2008
I again did not schlep out to the GOP opposition press conference this morning, which again was held in the new location which would have required me to waste several hours of this historic, not to mention beautiful, final day of the Democratic National Convention. I watched on live streaming video, to watch supposed VP finalist Tim Pawlenty, gov of RNC host state Minnesota, take his turn as yet another Republican with no foreign policy experience question Barack Obama's experience and judgment to be commander-in-chief. Message: last night Bill Clinton and Joe Biden and John Kerry and others told you that Obama is ready to lead, but don't listen to them.
He rolled out another "ad" (these are for the most part just promotional videos), this one showing images of scary world leaders and events while Bill Clinton, Chris Dodd, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and even Barack Obama himself spoke of his lack of qualifications in old clips. It's a good piece. You'll see a lot of this kind of stuff next week in St. Paul, presumably.
Of course, one reason they have to do this is because, aside from the 30 percent of Bush believers remaining, the American people give no credence to anything that any prominent Republicans in any way connected with foreign policy have to say -- or, those Republicans disagree with McCain.(see Dick Lugar, ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee).
The GOP also again flanked their speaker with two diverse people. (It reminds me of the old Woody Allen line about getting hired as the "show Jew" at a New York ad firm that, to demonstrate its willingness to hire minorities, needed someone to sit in an office and "look Jewish... I tried to look Jewish desperately; I used to read my memos from right to left.")
Unfortunately, the pickings are slim, so they had to recycle Rosaria Marin; they did find a different black guy, Texas Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams.
Williams, one of three members of that commission, is arguably the highest-ranking Black Republican in the country. Not that the competition is fierce, mind you. He is one of just 89 elected black Republicans in the US, at least as of mid-2007, according to the National Black Republicans Association, none of whom hold federal office and only three of whom were elected at the state-wide level: Williams and two judges. Of the remainder, the NBRA lists three state senators, six state representatives, five county sheriffs, five mayors, and then a smattering of county and municipal judges, city councilors, school board members, and other city and county offices.
Those show Republicans will get their turns at the GOP conference in Minnesota next week, but the kind of person the delegates really want to hear from is US Senator Jon Kyl of Arizona, who was the fourth guy on the stage this morning. Kyl is a red-meat, no-excuses conservative (he must have been burning at Marin's praise of McCain's 'reasonable' immigration reform attempts) who might have been the VP nominee had the party nominated someone from any other state.
Kyl is not exactly Mr. Diversity: He has a 7% rating from the NAACP, 100% from the Christian Coalition, 0% from NARAL, and 0% from HRC (gay rights) -- and of course he wants to build a wall on the southern border, deport all illegal aliens, deny them access to all services, and end the guest worker program. Muy bien, senior Kyl! I wonder if he and Marin (who was born in Mexico City and came to California with her working-class parents at age 14, speaking no English,and worked her way up to US Treasurer) will spend some quality time together in Denver this week.
August 28, 2008
At a press conference Monday I had an interesting conversation with some reporters, the upshot of which was that it is not widely known just how little access John McCain gives to the media now -- and that it will be interesting to see how that plays when the real campaign stretch begins a week from Friday. That's when the big media will begin really tagging along daily with the campaign (until now, it's remained much more a Hillary/Obama obsession), and it shouldn't take long for them to start getting seriously annoyed at never, ever, getting to ask any questions of the candidate, let alone get a 'straight talk' answer. Given how petulantly self-obsessed the media tends to be -- witness the on-air bitchfest about the long lines at Pepsi Center security, which have actually moved quickly and don't seem to be bothering anybody except the media -- you can bet the secreting away of the candidate will be made into an issue, and affect coverage.
That was the gist of that conversation on Monday. This morning, I see this Time Magazine piece; Exhibit A?
August 28, 2008
VIDEO: John Kerry on the attack
VIDEO: Bill Clinton addresses DNC
VIDEO: Hillary nominates Obama
VIDEO: Joe Biden accepts Vice Presidential Nomination
VIDEO: Surprise!
VIDEO: "Independent citizen media" captures vicious DNC protest on cell-phone. (Warning: NSFMSM!)
August 27, 2008
I have long predicted that Obama would come out of the convention with a solid lead, close to double digits, and never fall behind again. We'll see how right or wrong I turn out to be; I win some and lose some. But I certainly think that tonight's program went a long way toward making me look smart. What do you think?
August 27, 2008
I was down with the Massachusetts delegation when they officially announced their votes to the convention. State senate president Therese Murray got to do the state-bragging honors, and announced the 52 Clinton votes; Gov Patrick announced the 65 Obama votes. Murray included in her intro shout-outs to the Red Sox, Celtics, and Patriots -- not the Bruins -- which drew good-natured boos from the New York delegates seated directly below Massachusetts. AG Martha Coakley stood to Murray's right. Murray and the Hillary diehards came down first to claim their spaces around the podium: former state senator Joan Menard, state rep Lida Harkins, sheriff Andrea Cabral, state senator Marc Pacheco, Deb Goldberg. They let Patrick through, but other Obama supporters who wanted to be part of it had to stand in the background, including state party chair John Walsh. Aside from Patrick, almost all the black faces of the delegation were conspicuously absent, not just from the podium but from the hall at the historic moment.
The Clinton delegates now seem happy: even Goldberg, who has been as Hillarific as anyone, pointed proudly to her "Clinton delegates for Obama" pin. I'm not so sure all the Obama delegates in the Massachusetts group are feeling quite so unified, however.
August 27, 2008
Here's what I know, or think I know, about the delegate voting. This morning at the breakfast meetings, delegations gathered official votes from delegates; delegates could continue to submit (and change) their votes as the day went on.
Hillary Clinton has reportedly "released" her pledged delegates, told them that she has cast her vote for Obama, but that they are free to do as they please.
The delegations are trying now to finalize their numbers, to be ready for the impending roll call -- they are doing the nominating speeches now. I learned from an Illinois whip that 44 of that state's delegates are voting Clinton (out of 200 or so) -- and that's Obama's home base. So she'll have a solid showing IF they are tallied.
Rumor is that after the nominating speeches, they will let a few states vote -- probably skipping to home states like Illinois, New York, maybe others. Then Hillary will move to have Obama declared nominee by acclimation.
August 27, 2008
First, a confession: I did not attend today's Republican opposition press conference; the RNC moved it from the very inconvenient location of their temporary Denver war room across the Platte River from the Pepsi Center to a extremely inconvenient location several miles south of Downtown. I decided to watch on live streaming video.
Today's Democratic Convention theme is foreign policy and veterans, so the Republicans sent out three public officials to criticize Obama on those issues; oddly, none of the three have any foreign policy experience or have served in the military. In addition, all three were soundly, even humiliatingly defeated in their most recent attempts at elected office: Michael Steele was throttled in his run for US Senatein Maryland; Rosario Marin in the Republican Primary for US Senate in California; and of course Rudy Giuliani in the recent GOP Presidential primary.
Giuliani's primary and caucus results look like something from a horse racing form: 6th, 4th, 4th, 6th, 6th, 6th, "retired." Of course, losing pols aren't put down, they are put forward as spokespeople for the party.
Steele and Marin weren't there to speak, of course; they were there to show that the GOP has black, brown, and female members too -- and here they both were. They stood beside Rudy, looking appropriately diverse, while the former America's Mayor warned of Obama's dangerous unreadiness to lead the country in these dangerous times -- an assessment, he repeated often, shared by none other than Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden.
Giuliani in particular slipped in several references to Israel; Rudy is big among the Zionist Jewish voters (especially down in swing-state Florida), and McCain really wants those votes.
The substance of the attacks was nothing new, but I've always thought that Giuliani is a great attacker (I think it's that self-assured New York superiority), so he seemed effective, to the extent that these press conferences mean anything. But seriously, other than their own claims at expertise, is there anything to suggest that Giuliani is an authority on foreign affairs -- any more than Romney is an authority on the economy?
August 27, 2008
DENVER -- You may recall that for many months of this year, the pundits prattled about how Hillary Clinton was hurting the eventual nominee by hanging in the race. That was a dubious claim; the competition seemed to draw more people, more coverage, and more excitement to the Democrats. Now this week, the wise analysts have hyperventilated on the importance of Clinton getting her supporters to "unite" with Obama, for if not he shall surely fail. Hmmm. I don't actually believe the feud is a strategic invention to drive up ratings, but it certainly would have been a wise one if it was.
I thought Clinton gave a terrific speech last night, but I think the stakes were far bigger for her than for Obama. Clinton has been teetering on the verge of being tossed from the fold of the Democratic Party. Consider that had she NOT given a forceful endorsement of Obama, then she faced only two possible futures within the Democratic Party: A) complete estrangement from an Obama Administration, or B) total blame for a McCain Administration.
She still couldn't bring herself to actually say anything nice about Obama in her speech, or even to give a single clip-ready line rebutting her old 'he's not ready to lead' critiques now being used by the Republicans. But, she did something more important, which is to draw (presumably) a larger-than-normal viewing audience and tell them in simple, compelling terms why they need to vote Dem instead of Rep this November,
Bill Clinton, I suspect, will similarly use his speech to bash McCain. (You may recall that he was one of the few to give a true attack speech in Boston in '04.) I expect him to focus on the economy -- I wouldn't be surprised to hear him make some outstanding reprise of the classic "It's the economy, stupid" refrain from his 1992 campaign. (Is he ballsy enough to say it as a mocking piece of advice to McCain?)
That's what he should do, in my opinion, and he should carry it through thematically to compare Barack '08 to Bill '92 -- criticized for being untested, an outsider, etc., but in fact being just the kind of new energy the White House needs. That would not only be a great argument to the American people, but also a great move for him and his legacy. It would be, in effect, his seconding of Ted Kennedy's challenge on Monday night for the party to let go of its loyalties to the old generation of leaders -- which implicitly includes Bill as well as Ted, Jesse, and the rest.
Of course, that also implicitly includes Hillary, and I doubt that Bill is ready to concede that she is not the future of the party.
August 26, 2008
I thought Warner was weak -- in fact, a generally weak evening considering how many millions of households presumably had the DNC on in the background waiting for Hillary. So, what do you think: did Deval shine from among the dullards, or blend in?
