October 31, 2008
Several new polls out show good news for Democrats in the final week leading to the election:
--In North Carolina, a National Journal poll shows Kay Hagan up 43-37 over incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole, Elon U has Hagan ahead 44-37, and Rasmussen puts Kagan ahead 52-46.
--In Minnesota, Public Policy Polling has Al Franken ahead 45-40 over incumbent Republican Norm Coleman, with Independent candidate Dean Barkley at 14%; University of Minnesota has Franken ahead 41-37-17.
--In New Hampshire, Jeanne Shaheen leads incumbent Repubublican Jon Sununu 48-41 in a Strategic Vision poll,and 53-40 in a SurveyUSA poll.
--In Oregon, a PPP poll shows Jeff Merkley now leading 51-43 over incumbent Republican Gordon Smith.
--In Alaska, the first post-conviction poll has Mark Begich leading incumbent Republican felon Ted Stevens 52-44.
--In Colorado, both National Journal and PPP show Mark Udall opening a 15-point lead for an open Republican seat once expected to be a close contest.
--In New Mexico, for another open Republican seat, PPP has Tom Udall ahead 58-39.
Along with the expected huge victory for Mark Warner to take an open Republican seat in Virginia, that puts Democrats ahead in eight pick-up seats. Meanwhile, the two Democratic incumbents once thought vulnerable, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana and Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey, are ahead by 15 points or more in new polls.
And there are other possibilities. Jim Martin is still very close to incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss in Georgia. (Side note: Chambliss is a great big, broad-shouldered guy, and both Martin and the third-party candidate are little dudes, so when they debate it looks like one of those trick-camera things like in Lord of the Rings that makes Elijah Wood look half the size of Viggo Mortenson and Ian McKellen.) In Kentucky, incumbent Republican Mitch McConnell seems to have re-opened a lead over Bruce Lunsford, but it's still a possibility. (In their debate, McConnell's main -- almost sole -- argument was his vast power as minority leader to bring home the bacon to the commonwealth. I'm wondering whether voters, looking at the trends, may wonder whether the least-powerful member of the dominant majority party might have more sway than the most-powerful member of the irrelevant minority. Just wondering.) In Mississippi, two questionable polls show appointed-incumbent Roger
Wicker jumping to a double-digit lead over Ronnie Musgrove -- but expected
heavy turnout could significantly help the Democrat.
Even Republicans thought of as safe are not necessarily so safe. In Maine, Republican incumbent Susan Collins holds a solid lead over Tom Allen, but turnout (and a new Hillary Clinton robocall) might close that gap. In Nebraska, an open Republican seat, Mike Johanns's lead over Democrat Scott Kleeb was down to 14 in the last poll, back in September, and Johanns has recently run into some ethics charges relating to his time as USDA Secretary. In Texas, large Hispanic turnout could help boost Democrat Rick Noriega, who is within nine points of incumbent John Cornyn according to a new UT poll -- and now Noriega is pummeling Cornyn for saying that some Kleeb is getting some dire economic talk is "overblown" "Chicken Little comments" -- which Noriega is describing as out-of-touch and tying to fellow Texan Phil Gramm's comments about "whiners" complaining about the economy earlier this year. For Nebraska's open Republican seat, the last poll was a month ago, and showed Democrat Scott Kleeb closing the gap to 14 points behind Mike Johanns -- and now Johann is facing new ethics charges concerning his time as USDA Secretary. Kleeb is getting some late help: Obama's campaign through some resources into the state to boost turnout in Omaha, and CA Senator Barbara Boxer has just put Kleeb (and Maine's Allen) on her priority list. In Oklahoma, incumbent Republican Jim Inhofe, who should be cruising to easy re-election, is ahead by an average of around 13 or 14 points in the polls, and Democrat Steve Rice has gotten a big funding boost and flooded the airwaves with attack ads.
Then there's Idaho, which Michael Pahre asked about recently in this blog's comments. The Republican, Lt. Gov. Jim Risch, has been leading by huge numbers in the polls over the Democrat, former congressman Larry LaRocco, to replace infamous bathroom-stalker Larry Craig. That was to be expected in the early going in a heavily Republican state, and I have wondered whether the race might tighten once people actually started paying attention to it. There is some evidence of that: a poll taken 10 days ago had the lead down to 12, in the only poll taken since the financial collapse. Risch has been under attack the past few days, primarily over his avoidance of military service in Vietnam (LaRocco is a veteran). LaRocco is being helped in these attacks by a third-party candidate, Kent Marmon -- who appears to be running primarily as a grudge against Risch, who once ordered state officers to hunt down and kill Marmon's elks. Oh, and there's another candidate, an organic farmer who has legally changed his name to Pro-Life. So, who knows what will happen.
October 29, 2008
As one of the few people who steadfastly insisted, from start to end of the election cycle, that John McCain would win the Presidential nomination, I feel that I can make some claim to expertise on the topic of the national Republican Party. So, in the new issue of the Boston Phoenix, I look ahead to what that party will look like beyond next week's election.
That future, I suggest, is grim. The GOP has, I believe, passed a tipping point where it is under the control of the reactionary right-wing ideologues.
With its rigid, uncompromising beliefs, those ideologues are becoming irrelevant to serious political debate. So, all they have left is the same angry accusations that now seem sadly dated.
My article can be found here: Rise Of The Political Bogeymen.
But also DO NOT MISS my accompanying ranking of the 25 scariest conservatives, who will hold the most sway in 2009 and beyond!
October 28, 2008
Maureen Feeney's brief release on the Dianne Wilkerson bombshell calls this a "disappointing day," which seems a bit understated; for those who missed it, here's my report from earlier today on the accusations. I don't have much to add right now, except that she has been released on $50,000 unsecured bond with various conditions, including a prohibition on destroying any documents related to her finances, personal or campaign. Agents will be wanting to go through all of those, thank you very much.
The US Attorney's office says that this is "an ongoing investigation," but will not say whether others are potentially implicated -- except to say that Mayor Menino was not a target of this investigation. Michael Sullivan has been quoted elsewhere saying that no other elected officials are suspected of taking part in bribery. That still leaves other folks in and around Wilkerson and/or city government.
Much more on this later,you can be sure.
October 24, 2008
Republican former Massachusetts Governor William Weld is endorsing Barack Obama, the Associated Press reports.
Weld released a statement calling Obama "the best candidate to move our country forward," and will announce the endorsement publicly later this morning in Salem, New Hampshire.
Weld has long been an advocate for "big-tent" Republican inclusion, to include supporters of gay rights, abortion rights, and other socially moderate positions. Nevertheless, he was an early and avid endorser of Mitt Romney for the Republican nomination, perhaps not appreciating how far to the right Romney was veering on those issues.
Weld himself tacked rightward during his run for New York governor -- a campaign he eventually abandoned after running into a scandal over Decker College, but more importantly after facing steady, unrelenting opposition from conservatives in the state party.
His endorsement of Obama is one more sign that the GOP is pushing its moderates out of the party.
October 23, 2008
Conservative blogger Glenn Reynolds was apparently a tad miffed about my recent post mentioning him. I mused that Reynolds's decision to vote for Barr might be a "leading indicator of a decision that a fair number of folks, especially in the South
(Barr is Georgian), may be considering as they start to see McCain's defeat as
inevitable."
Reynolds reminds his readers that, as he indeed wrote the first time, his Barr decision is NOT based on McCain's inevitable defeat. I might hypothesize that the timing of his decision suggests otherwise, but that's unimportant: I did not intend to argue that it was. I was suggesting that there might be a lot of conservatives who personally like Barr more than McCain, and who might now, as they sense the futility of the GOP candidate's quest, be considering voting that way.
My apologies for leaving the wording open to a different inference.
It was not a deliberate misrepresentation on my part -- unlike, say, the way Reynolds sometimes deliberately misrepresents the news he comments on.
Here's Reynolds today, for example, calling attention to "VOTER FRAUD IN PENNSYLVANIA!"
The case in question is not, of course, voter fraud. It is voter registration fraud, with absolutely no possibility of turning into voter fraud, because the phony registrations were for people already registered. In addition, as the news article to which Reynolds links reports, it was the local ACORN staff who caught the fraud, alerted election officials, and helped secure the man's arrest.
October 23, 2008
A new poll -- which shows McCain leading Obama by 13 in Arkansas, a poor omen for my 35-state prediction -- shows 55% opposing a ballot initiative aimed at preventing same-sex couples from adopting, or being a foster parent. The initiative's chances are probably not helped by the broad wording, which tries to avoid the appearance of homophobia by prohibiting couples cohabiting outside of a legally valid marriage.
October 22, 2008
I blogged some thoughts after Sarah Palin's Granite State visit last week, but in this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- I write an actual column about it. I watched her speak at all three venues on her one-day barnstorm of New Hampshire, and spoke with many people about her, ranging from housewives to high-ranking politicians.
From it all, came this week's column. Enjoy!
Travels With Sarah: As Palin tours New Hampshire, signs of Biblical calling, talent on the stump,
and a shot at 2012
October 22, 2008
I'm very gratified to be getting questions today! Thanks, and keep them coming!
"Roseland" asks:
Would Yoon and Flaherty seriously BOTH run for mayor? Splitting the
anti-Menino vote would likely result in certain defeat for them both.
What are your thoughts on Yoon and Flaherty's relationship, and is
there any chance they are working together to drum up interest in the
race and contributions, while only one plans to really run a full
campaign?
I do not think Yoon and Flaherty are in cahoots, at all. However, I have previously hypothesized that if Menino is beatable (a big if), it would be more likely to happen if more than one serious challenger runs. It would generate interest throughout the year, including the preliminary; a one-challenger race wouldn't draw interest until after the prelim. The challenger surviving a multi-candidate prelim would get a big boost coming out from it.
Splitting the anti-Menino vote is not a big issue, because of how Boston's city elections work. The top two vote-getters in a preliminary election go on to the general-election ballot. Presumably, that would be Menino and one anti-Menino candidate.
I think that right now Yoon and Flaherty are each about 60%-70% likely to run, and I think their final decisions will be made based more on what they're being told by their advisers (on fundraising, for instance) than on who else runs.
October 22, 2008
"Gary" asks:
Carla Howell says that in the petition gathering, the troops had the
best success in the working class and lower middle class neighborhoods,
suggesting that there's a lot of support for Question 1 with a large
turnout, particularly if that large turnout is from the lower-middle
class that typically doesn't vote so much.
Irony, if a high Obama turnout means 'Yes' on Question 1, no?
Ah, irony. The Question 1 yes-votes are likely to come disproportionately from, shall we say, the Herald-Howie Carr demographic, as you suggest. But those are not the most likely Obama voters. If turnout is disproportionately high for Obama-enthusiasts, it should hurt Q1. But we don't know whether that will be the case, or whether turnout will be high across the board, or what. So I guess I'm saying, I dunno.
October 22, 2008
"Jeffrey McNary" asks:
daley, kennedy, kerry, daschel, biden, hillary etc., all have
"guys"..."guys" needing to be "taken care of" should mr. obama win the
presidency. are there any obama, "guy's", and if so where would they
land in his administration? some, e.g., samantha power have already
fallen (stumbled) on their swords. any more out there hungry fo 24-7
extreme-government?
The short answer is: lot of 'em. Not nearly as many as four years ago, when half of Boston's political players had mentally picked out their DC homes before John Kerry lost.
This is actually a topic I've just started to have conversations with folks about. Remember, Obama had a lot of early fundraising support here in the Boston area -- including a lot of folks from Harvard Law circles, who could fit nicely into any number of mid-level appointments. (See this article I wrote in March 2007 about locals who lined up early with Obama and other Democratic candidates.)
But also don't forget that Joe Biden has a lot of "guys" here as well. Larry Rasky in particular is very close to Biden.
Here's one high-level job to keep your eye on: US Attorney for the Massachusetts District. This plum appointment has been held in limbo by odd circumstances; current occupant Michael Sullivan was named acting ATF Director two years ago, but has been unable to get confirmed for that new post -- he's been blocked not by Democrats, but by hard-right conservative Senators over their ideological dispute with the ATF's role per se. Sullivan has been doing both jobs, and once Obama comes in will probably not be doing either one for very long. (He is certainly a potential Senate candidate if a seat opens up.)
October 22, 2008
"Jeremy" asks:
Why does Jack Beatty still have a role on On Point with Tom Ashbrook?
Even as a progressive liberal listener Beatty only provide agita,
playing to the list liberal denominator with arguments that often fall
short of any redeeming value.
I don't listen to On Point as regularly as I'd like, but I think Beatty adds to the show. He wears his heart on his sleeve, that's for sure, but he's got the intelligence and the historical context to justify it. Where Beatty would really be a perfect fit is blogging for his former mag, the Atlantic -- which should still be publishing from Boston, with real Bostonian intellectuals like Beatty sharing their wisdom with the less advanced parts of the country.
Keep the questions coming, folks!
October 22, 2008
"Jesse" asks:
Intrade -- the political futures market -- has opened a trading market for Question 1. They give it a 33% chance of passing (www.intrade.com/.../c_cd.jsp).
What does the Bernstein futures market trade it at?
I think that's about right, actually. At those odds I would take "not pass." I'd probably place it closer to 20%.
There are enough local stories about the effects of Gov. Patrick's emergency cuts, and what more might be at stake, to tilt a fair number of people away from voting yes, I would guess, and I think it was an uphill battle already.
October 22, 2008
I didn't get any questions on Friday, so let's see if you're feeling more inquisitive mid-week. Leave me any questions you'd like in the comments to this post (or email to dbernstein@phx.com) and I will answer in subsequent posts over the course of the day. Local, state, national politics; policy; rumor and gossip; predictions; analysis; something I've written; something someone else has written; anything you want to throw at me. I'm looking forward to it!
October 21, 2008
The new national Pew poll, one of my faves, has Obama ahead by 14 points -- and the data just gets worse for McCain the deeper you go. It's particularly worth noting that people now believe, by a wide margin, that Obama will win; that assumption makes it easier to imagine him as President, which makes it harder to imagine him as a terrorist-coddling Marxist. And indeed, Obama's favorability rating keeps climbing despite the attacks, and is now at a killer 68%, with only 29% unfavorable, a +39 margin. Biden's favorability is also up, standing at a +31 margin, while both McCain's (+12) and Palin's (-5) are sloping the wrong way.
Pew breaks out "Swing Voters," or "persuadables" as I like to call them, who are either truly undecided or are leaning one way but not certain. That's 23% of the total in this survey, breaking down roughly as 6% leaning McCain, 8% leaning Obama, 9% truly undecided. In a lot of key ways, those Swing Voters look more like the certain Obama voters than the certain McCain voters. For example, Pew ranks the top issues that the three groups rate as most important in the election. Economy is number one for all three groups, but the next three (in slightly different order) are the same for both the Swing Voters and the Certain Obama voters: Jobs, Health Care, and Education. For McCain voters, however, the next three are Taxes, Terrorism, and Energy.
October 21, 2008
The American Planning Association has named its 30 "Great Places in America." One of the "Great Sreets" is Washington Street in the South End. Well deserved -- and as a bonus, the write-up does not use the term "SoWa."
Downtown Salem, Mass. ranks as one of the Great Neighborhoods. Elsewhere in New England, Commercial Street in Portland gets Great Street status. Waterplace Park in Providence, and Church Street Marketplace in Burlington, Vermont, both rank as Great Public Spaces.
