The Phoenix

Bad Morale Day At McCain HQ

Seldom does so much polling data drop in a single day with so much bad news for one candidate. Let us briefly review.

Results from six new national polls were released today; Obama leads in all six, by margins ranging from 4 to 9 points. That's in addition to the various daily tracking polls, which also all show Obama ahead by similar margins.

Now for states won by Kerry in '04 that McCain has hoped to pick up. Three new polls today show Obama ahead in Pennsylvania, by 5, 7, and 15 points. Other new polls released today show Obama ahead by 16 in Iowa; by 9 in Wisconsin; by 9 in New Jersey; and by 11 in Minnesota.

Next, states won by Bush in '04 that Obama has hoped to pick up. Three polls released today all show Obama leading in Florida, by margins of 4, 4, and 8 points. Other new polls show Obama up by 9 in Virginia; by 4 in Nevada; by 8 in Ohio.

Two more polls show a virtual tie in the very red states of Missouri and Indiana.

And another two polls show McCain's lead down to single digits in the ridiculously red states of Texas and Mississippi.

Oh, and CBS News showed perhaps the most humiliating clip yet from the Katie Couric/Sarah Palin interviews. Can't have been a very cheery day with the McCain campaign.

Ah well, tomorrow is another day -- albeit one in which Palin will be answering unscripted questions on live television with tens of millions of people watching....

Published Oct 01 2008, 10:02 by David S. Bernstein

Bob Neer said:

Loved the kicker, David. "Ah well, tomorrow is another day -- albeit one in which Palin will be answering unscripted questions on live television with tens of millions of people watching...."

Let's hope things get even worse for the McCain campaign tomorrow, and go steadily downhill from there until 4 November.

October 1, 2008 10:57
Anderson said:

Mcshame has one advantage, the "Bradley Effect" Obama needs to be up by 6-8 points in each of the states to have a chance to win them, Look back at the PA primary where he was behind by 3 and lost by 10, or Nh where he was up by 4 and lost by 2, or in ohio where he was tied and lost big, this is the sad state of the US and in each case where elections have been between a white guy and a black guy, the bradley effect rears its head.

October 2, 2008 12:38 AM
LorenzoJennifer said:

Let's not forget that Barack Obama won his primary contests by being a little behind Hillary Clinton and then finishing with a flourish. There were around 17 or so caucus states and Obama won around 15 of them. Voters in a caucus must identify themselves as registered voters and stand with a group that backs a certain candidate. Fully expect that Obama's people have developed a thorough e-mail list of all who attended these caucuses and expressed their support. Invaluable for calling on known supporters for neighborhood organizing, contributions and getting out the vote on election day. Chances are Barack's Buddies did a lot of exit polling and other activities in states that held primaries. As the Republican Party ran almost all primaries and few caucuses, the opportunity to develop their own solid data base of supporters seems lesser by comparison.

October 2, 2008 1:36 AM
HJE said:

Kerry didn't win Iowa.... It was one of two states that flipped from Gore to Bush. The other being New Mexico.

October 2, 2008 2:47 AM
sfsafsa said:

Always good to see morale tanking in the Grumpy McNasty campaign.

McCain is an older, stupider, less honest version of George Custer (the military doofus).

October 20, 2008 10:17 AM