First Sign To Watch

If you're one of those antsy, can't-stand-the-waiting types, after 6:00 go to this link.

This is the election-return site for a congressional race in the Ft. Wayne area of Indiana; polls close in this district at 6:00 ET. It's a heavy Republican area, where Bush won by a wide margin in 2004.

Incumbent Republican congressman Mark Souder has a tough fight on his hands from Democratic challenger Michael Montagano. A month ago, most insiders had this race as "leans Republican." Many have since moved it to "toss-up."

If Montagano beats Souder here, it could mean that Republicans will lose a lot of seats in the US House. It also could indicate that Barack Obama will win Indiana. On the other hand, if Souder romps to re-election, things might not go so badly for McCain and the GOP tonight. Worth watching as an early bellwether.