US House Looks Blue

Published Nov 04 2008, 07:37 PM by David S. Bernstein

Looking at national exit polls on voting in US House races is tricky -- it isn't a one-to-one correspondence to the number of elected congressmen. But it's something.

In 2004, the national exit polls showed voters barely favoring the GOP in US House votes, by maybe 1%; in reality, the spread was close to 7 percentage points, and the seats went 232-202 for the Republicans.

In 2006, the exit polls showed a Democratic edge of about 7 points, which is right around the actual vote gap, of 53.6% Dem to 46.4% Rep. -- that resulted in a 233-202 edge to the Democrats.

Today, the exit polls show a national gap of around 13 points for the Democrats. How will that translate into seats? We'll soon find out....

Filed Under: Election08

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