Q&A #5 -- Menino's Challengers

"FrankSmith45" asks:

Who is going to be nominated along with Menino - and do they have a shot against Mumbles?

First of all, we do not refer to the Honorable Mayor Thomas Menino as "Mumbles" on this blog. We prefer to call him "Mayor McChicken" -- which we promised to discontinue once he announced he was running, but have decided to continue until he agrees to participate in debates.

Sorry, what was the question again? Oh yeah, his opponents: Michael Flaherty, Kevin McCrae, Sam Yoon, and perhaps others: seven more have applied for nominating papers, including former city councilor Gareth Saunders, but let's wait and see who actually gets enough signatures to be on the ballot.

I can picture either Flaherty or Yoon getting through the preliminary election, which will narrow the field to two -- presumably Menino and one of those two. (I know, I'm not giving McCrae his due; go ahead and complain, I'm just giving you my political analysis.)

I think Flaherty has a serious base of support, and is likely to do well in the preliminary, topping the field in several parts of the city. Yoon, by contrast, seems to me likely to either catch fire or not. If he does, he soars past Flaherty into a final with Menino; if he doesn't, Flaherty gets on the November ballot. At this moment, forced to make a prediction (curses, Ask Me Anything Day!), I go with Flaherty.

As for whether either one has a shot in November against the incumbent, that depends on a number of things happening -- which I discussed in this article. (It's about Yoon, but most of it can be applied to Flaherty.) Menino remains a heavy favorite for now.