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Nominate-best-2010

Wait -- This Might Be Even Stupider

While I was busy blogging earlier today about something stupid Martha Coakley said, her campaign sent out a press release touting an internal poll. The headline blares: "Martha Coakley Holds Sizable Primary Lead in Special Election for U.S. Senate."

That headline has an important problematic grammatical issue, which I'll return to shortly.

But first, why would Coakley's campaign release an internal poll showing their candidate with a massive, whopping lead? The numbers are Coakley 47%, Capuano 12%, Pagliuca 4%, Khazei 1%, which leaves about a third of the electorate undecided. Let's not quibble with questions about the polls accuracy and reliability (as an internal poll, we cynics are naturally skeptical). Why would they want to tout this?

There are two problems with releasing this poll, in my view. First, the campaign seems to be hell-bent on stoking the perception that you're supposed to vote for Martha Coakley -- because she's a woman, because she's supported by the important people, because she's endorsed by the important groups, and most of all because she's going to win. It's the classic frontrunner's inevitability ploy, and it's why we are currently blessed with President Hillary Clinton and Governor Tom Reilly, who both ran with the exact same strategy. It's the same ploy that came thisclose to losing every point of Niki Tsongas's similar gazillion-point lead in the polls, in a similarly quick special-election timeframe.

But worse, by releasing this poll now, the campaign practically guarantees that there will, before too long, be a campaign narrative about the race narrowing -- or put another way, about Coakley's lead vanishing. It's inevitable, as Democrats across the state find out who the hell Capuano, Pagliuca, and Khazei are, that their numbers will go up. Frankly, even if they don't, there will likely be at least one poll that makes it look like it's closer, because of when or how or who they polled. Remember when one oddball poll set off a week's worth of stories that Kerry Healey was closing the gap on Deval Patrick?

And there's another reason that we can be pretty sure the race is tightening -- and here's where the grammatical problem comes in. Because this poll doesn't show that Coakley "Holds" a lead, it shows that she "Held" a lead. Two weeks ago, before the campaigns really got started.

According to the press release, the poll was conducted September 21-24. According to my little appointment calendar, that's two weeks ago. These are two-week-old numbers -- in a 12-week campaign. Nobody can claim with a straight face that these figures reflect the present tense reality.

These figures are essentially pre-campaign numbers. Capuano and Pagliuca had just launched their web sites, and just begun airing TV ads when this poll was taken. Alan Khazei formally announced his candidacy on the 24th.

And just in case you imagine that anybody was already paying attention to those other candidates, I remind you that September 22 was the Boston mayoral preliminary, which pretty well captured the headlines those days -- at least, those headlines not devoted to the Patriots-Jets game and the Red Sox playoff race.

So the question is, why would Coakley's campaign release an old internal poll today? To distract from the Menino email thing? To reassure supporters who are worried about her not being up with ads yet?

I tried to ask Coakley's campaign that question, but they haven't gotten back to me.

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14 Comments

  • Boston Bertie said:

    You hit the nail on the head - she is trying to distract attention from the fact that she should be investigating emailgate in Boston City Hall. The time to act is now, Martha.

    October 7, 2009 2:54 PM
  • Erin said:

    Great points! The fact that they released this is extremely odd, I think if anything Coakley's been digging herself into a hole since she announced candidacy. To me, it;s a sign of a sinking ship, but then again, Therese Murray is her fundraiser, so she'll surely have the big bucks needed. As a woman, it really bothers me to see any woman run on the "for for my uterus" ticket, that's why Hillary wasn't ever going to get my vote.

    October 7, 2009 3:03 PM
  • purplehusky64 said:

    Too much Too little and too late now when she was unveiling her office's computer forensics unit was the time, now it looks like she's adding to the coverup and acting like an accomplice not AG!

    October 7, 2009 3:44 PM
  • Rob said:

    What's actually stupid is how people are making a mountain out of a molehill with what she said. It was a minor comment being misinterpreted and blown out of proportion.

    October 7, 2009 3:58 PM
  • WhatsReallyImportant said:

    I think what's missing here is that Martha is in the lead because a) she's running the best campaign b) a lot of people like her and thus she has incredible grassroots support, and perhaps most importantly c) she has the best experience and the best forward vision of the candidates.

    Is it possible she's now under attack because she is in the lead and the media is trying to tear her down to create a more interesting race? What about focusing on the issues that really matter?

    I've been inspired all along by the fact that Martha is a very different kind of leader. She goes after issues I care about and holds the government accountable to its promises. I really think she's the best person to roll up her sleeves to make headway on the big challenges of today like health care and rebuilding economic security.

    October 7, 2009 4:38 PM
  • Lisa said:

    I so agree with you Erin

    October 7, 2009 5:16 PM
  • Boston Bertie said:

    ...Well she certainly ain't holding Boston City Government accountable.

    October 7, 2009 7:55 PM
  • nalp99 said:

    "...why would Coakley's campaign release an internal poll showing their candidate with a massive, whopping lead?"

    I'm guessing it's because that's what leading candidates are supposed to do. No poll or survey shows the race as it necessarily will be next week, or even tomorrow.  But it's being disingenuous to suggest that a leading candidate *shouldn't* release such healthy numbers, if that's what their polling shows.  

    Will the narrative of the race eventually show that it is narrowing?  Perhaps.  Or, perhaps, the AG continues on with this significant lead right on through the primary, and the narrative is that she shot straight out of the gate and never looked back.  I understand the point that Mr. Bernstein is trying to make, but it seems like he is working awfully hard to contort her very positive news into something altogether different and dire.

    I would think the other candidates would not hesitate to release polling information that shows them with a commanding lead, whether it was two weeks old or not. It's a campaign, after all --isn't it?

    October 8, 2009 12:13 AM
  • Sam said:

    If you would like to take a stand against money in politics please join our Reform voting bloc. We are simply asking candidates not to accept campaign contributions form lobbyists and PAC's before we consider voting for them.

    www.votingbloc.org/Reform_Bloc_MA.php

    October 8, 2009 10:08 AM
  • aging cynic said:

    "different kind of leader"..."roll up her sleeves"...."I've been inspired"..."big challenges"...blah, blah, blah...If I have to listen to this rhetoric until the election, I will hang myself in the shower before I get a chance to vote....

    October 8, 2009 10:50 PM
  • PaulSimmons said:

    A couple of points:

    There is a political context to this, involving the alliance between Menino and Coakley in the Senate race.  While I would not suggest antyhing improper, there is a political calculation involved.

    Second, the Mayor's docu-dump yesterday (link below) might lessen the political pressure by turning public perception into a Globe versus the Mayor dynamic (and most of the Mayor's core constituencies - particularly blacks and Latinos - have no love for the Globe).

    www.cityofboston.gov/.../kineavy_messages.asp

    October 9, 2009 10:46 AM
  • The Issue said:

    ... is elusive, why exactly does Martha Coakley want to be Senator?

    Is it because she has had a campaign in place for so long that not running it would give her blue uterus?

    Is it because she has a uterus and think that is the key ingredient to a successful candidacy ?

    Does she like to see her name in print?

    Cause I sure as heck haven't heard her speak to the issues or have a understanding about what the job in Washington entails. Khazei and Pagliuca are as politically well qualified as Coakley is to be Senator and they bring a quality other than cold political ambition.

    October 12, 2009 11:02 AM

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