Globe Poll, Flaherty Internals At Odds

Published Oct 18 2009, 12:16 AM by David S. Bernstein

The Boston Globe has the results of a new poll in the Sunday paper, which shows Tom Menino cruising to re-election: "Menino holds a lead of 52 percent to 32 percent over Councilor at Large Michael F. Flaherty Jr.," it says.

But a poll conducted at the same time (earlier this week) by Flaherty's campaign -- provided to me by their campaign just now, in response to my inquiry -- shows Menino leading by half that gap: 48% to 38%.

So what gives? It's hard to tell, because the Globe's story makes it hard to tell what their own (UNH)polling actually shows, and at this hour they have not made the data available.

What seems likely to me is that the lead narrows as you close in on the most likely voters. Flaherty's internal poll is of 500 "likely voters," using, I believe, voter files to find such people. The poll finds an even narrower 7-point lead (47%-40%) among "definite voters."

The Globe/UNH poll, however, used 553 "randomly selected Boston residents," which is frankly a ridiculously overbroad pool -- it would include a lot of folks who aren't even registered to vote. The article says that 438 of them "said they were likely voters," which shows why you don't want to use self-identification for that sort of question; if 80 percent of Boston residents are likely to vote on November 3rd then I'm Napolean Bonaparte. [Update: 66% of the poll's respondents said they will DEFINITELY vote, with another 9% saying that only an emergency would prevent them from doing so.]

The article, as it reads online, does not indicate whether the 52%-32% Menino lead comes from the full 553 people polled, or the 438 self-proclaimed likely voters. (That, and other details, may be much clearer in the morning paper.) Either way, it's from a far broader pool than the Flaherty poll's 500 "likely voters."

The Globe article says that 69 percent of respondents view Menino favorably, which is actually a tad below the 72% favorability found in the Flaherty internal. But Flaherty's own favorability number is just 50% in the Globe poll, but 61% in his own polling.

Bottom line? I think the race looks much more like Flaherty's poll than the Globe's. But the importance of the Globe poll is not in its accuracy, but in its effect.

If the Globe was reporting today that the gap had closed to within 10 points, that would have produced a major jolt to the final two weeks of the campaign. By reporting that the gap stands at 20, the Globe may have ensured that the city turns its attention elsewhere.

I'll have more thoughts, I'm sure, when I have details of the Globe/UNH poll.

At-Large Cash For The Close

Please Romney Indeed

19 Comments

Boston Bertie said:

This is more of the Boston Globe doing the bidding of the Menino Machine.

According to the Globe's "pollster" we are set for a turnout of 450,000 on Novemeber 3rd - that would be a turnout of 125%.

To put this in perspective, 23% voted in the preliminary and 62% in the last presidential election.

The question is why the Globe would print such nonsense that can only benefit Menino and discourage voter turnout.

October 18, 2009 1:07 AM
tumble4ya said:

What a gross abuse of power - and this time I'm not referring to Menino, but the Globe. Polling is scientific. It shouldn't be wetting your finger and sticking it out to the world to see which direction the winds are swirling and taking your queue from that. They might as well have included the whole New England media market or just asked kindergartners. The Globe is just as bad as Menino - neither get it and they're reading their own press, with their heads in the sand, tucked out of earshot of real people in Boston.

October 18, 2009 4:39 AM
purplehusky64 said:

Menino is a greedy dictator he even has the Globe doing his bidding..16 years of him is like 16 years of George W. Bush.

Vote him out!

Flaherty/Yoon on November 3rd...

October 18, 2009 10:28 AM
Really? said:

Poll: The Boston mayoral race

"Results of a Boston Globe survey of randomly selected registered Boston voters conducted between Oct. 10 and Oct. 15 by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Margin of error of is +/- 4.4 percentage points."

This is at the top of the poll. How can you say they did not poll registered voters when this states they did? Are you saying the Globe/UNH is lying? That Flahertys INTERNAL poll is telling the truth? Seems to me you are. Weird. Dont let the facts get in the way of a "good" story.

October 18, 2009 10:47 AM
Boston Bertie said:

The poll contacted 550 or so RANDOM residents and asked them if they planned to vote. Bear in mind that only about half of Boston residents are even REGISTERED to vote, never mind active or likely voters. Talk to any pollster worth his salt. This is a joke.

October 18, 2009 12:57 PM
odat said:

Will Flaherty make public the results and (more importantly) the content of their poll? Will they detail who they polled? I doubt it. Will certain writers believe these numbers and report on them because it makes a more "entertaining" last few weeks? Yup.

October 18, 2009 1:19 PM
fredjamaica said:

I called the Flaherty campaign and was told that it would be releasing their poll on their website shortly. Their pollster is from Harvard and has a national reputation or so I was told. The Globe poll was comical to say the least. They have no idea who they are talking to. Could be a 17 year old from Somerville. Makes no sense.

October 18, 2009 4:51 PM
Louise said:

It's time for a change we will win.

I feel it.

October 18, 2009 6:50 PM
Bostonbilly said:

I have done polls on local and national levels and have never seen such a shoddy approach to a poll. Random polling? What is that? The first question you ask a person is "Are you registered to vote?" If they say yes, you go on to the next question. "Do you plan on voting in the Mayor's eletion?" If they say yes, you go on the the body of the poll. If they say no, you hang up. Simple

October 18, 2009 7:02 PM
rodneypete said:

keeping listening to the BS out of Flats campaign HQ, the Globe has even tried to take down mumbles and can't. You cant have it both ways,,, either way flats is done and is moving to a house in plymouth with a view, although it is a fixer upper. I would love to see this poll cause i got it, and it was a vicious attack push poll. Flats is all done.

October 18, 2009 7:36 PM
Boston Bertie said:

Sure rodneypete. You don't even know what a push-poll is obviously. There haven't been any push polls done in this race by anyone.

Don't forget to set your alarm for 11am tomorrow, so you won't be late for work at City Hall.

October 18, 2009 8:44 PM
ArthurProkosch said:

Responding to "Really?": yes, the Boston Globe article/results have "survey of randomly selected registered Boston voters" plastered at the top.

If that were accurate, then it would be the end of the discussion. The issue is that it isn't. For example, the actual UNH technical report, www.unh.edu/.../bg_2009-oct18.pdf , used one set of questions to start with "553 randomly selected Boston adults" and assume based on self-reported responses (in question LIKELY) or nothing at all (in question INT2) that they are actually registered to vote -- versus actually asking only people whose names appear on voter rolls.

October 18, 2009 8:51 PM
LB said:

another example of the media (Globe) telling the people, don't bother to vote, we know what's going to happen on Nov.3. Shame on the people who let the media determine the outcome and don't exercise their right to vote.

October 18, 2009 9:26 PM
katesbJP said:

no offense, but I'm going to trust an independently run survey a tad bit more that Flaherty's campaign survey (it's hard for me to actually think that his campaign would be capable of running a honest survey since not much of their campaign has been honest)

And also, how can everyone say the Globe has endorsed Menino -- they have been anti-Menino for absolutely no reason since the beginning of this campaign -- sitting on stories until a week before the Prelims and having the politics reporter do nothing more that make up reasons to drag Michael Kineavy through the mud.

I'm anti-Globe too (we just cancelled our subscription) but I know the one man who has done his job here is Tom Menino -- the only candidate who time and time again has stood by his progressive values and made this city work for working people!

October 19, 2009 10:18 AM
PaulSimmons said:

From the Pollster.com January 5, 2008 Poll of Pollsters:

In New Hampshire, the pollsters rated most reliable are ABC News/Washington Post (72% reliable), CNN/WMUR/University of New Hampshire (65%), CBS News/New York Times (61%), the Pew Research Center (59%) and the Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire (56%). Keep in mind that the same University of New Hampshire Survey Center partners with both CNN/WMUR and the Boston Globe.

www.pollster.com/.../poll_of_pollsters_rating_the_n.php

October 19, 2009 1:18 PM