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Nominate-best-2010

Khazei Sneaking Up?

I tend to be skeptical of Rasmussen polls, but here goes... of likely Dem primary voters:

Coakley 36%

Capuano 21%

Khazei 14%

Pagliuca 14%

Other 5%

Not sure 10%

OK, for starters, what "other"? But moving on....

For those who read my most recent column and are wondering if Coakley is Niki Tsongas redux -- never gaining a new voter from announcement to primary day -- well it sure looks like it, huh? Consider that when Rasmussen polled in early September, before the field had really taken shape, they had Coakley at the exact same 38% (with Lynch, Capuano, Tierney, and Markey all scattered far behind).

I'm still not wholly convinced that it's the same dynamic as Tsongas -- and if it is, there's still the big question of whether she can be caught, even standing still.

Rasmussen has Capuano now pulling ahead to a clear second place, just as the recent Globe poll had it. And, Pagliuca stalled out, just as in the Globe poll. This is also consistent with what I'm hearing about internals. Doesn't mean Pags can't make a move, but I have to admit I'm not feeling it.

But the big news in the Rasmussen poll clearly is Khazei, who emerges from single digits to catch the zillion-dollar man. That's forward movement; that's what we punditry scribes like to see.

Khazei has, according to this poll, gotten into the game even though 22% don't know enough about him to rate him fav/unfav. That's more room to grow than the other candidates. And, thanks to his pal Mayor BigApple, I understand he's got some money to play with.

I'll be interested to see how the Afghanistan issue plays out over the next week. Khazei's already put his chips emphatically on no additional troops -- which could win him the hearts of the liberals if Coakley and Capuano equivocate at all in deference to the Commander in Chief. Or, maybe it'll backfire on Khazei, who knows.

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11 Comments

  • Boston Bertie said:

    And where are Khazei's votes coming from? Early on, I would have said Capuano - but I'm not as sure anymore. Coakley's support is so soft, she's dropping everywhere. Khazei is certainly getting his share of them - maybe more.

    With Khazei growing, where will Pag's votes go, if his supporters reckon he has no shot. Far more likely to Capuano than Coakley I would think.

    Martha is trying to run out the clock here. You still got to fancy her...but it's getting closer out there.

    I bet that Martha Coakley just loves Thanksgiving.

    November 24, 2009 10:38 PM
  • tpmain said:

    Khazei is providing the most substantive answers to the big issues.  I'm not at all surprised that he's gaining lots of momentum as people learn more about him.

    November 25, 2009 1:25 AM
  • Mr. Roboto said:

    I canvassed for Alan Khazei during the big knock the vote weekend and I found three things:

    1.  Everyone is undecided

    2.  A couple people think they know who they're voting for

    3.  Everyone in #1 and #2 becomes intrigued when hearing just a little about Alan

    and I feel comfortable enough to make the leap--many of the people in #1 and some of the people in #2 decided/will decide to vote for Alan Khazei.

    These shifting political winds, reflected in teh polls, do not surprise me at all; they reflect the experiences I had door to door

    November 25, 2009 8:19 AM
  • rondofan said:

    I've seen the video of Khazei explaining his cavassing strategy, and my question is: how does he choose which houses to target? If it's truly random door-knocking, that seems like a waste of resources at this late stage. If it's a selected list of folks who might be likely to vote for him, wouldn't that skew his numbers from those contacts up?

    Re: Coakley's support being soft, in the Boston Globe poll, a higher percentage of her supporters were firmly committed than the other candidates'. It would be interesting to see the Rasmussen crosstabs to compare those sorts of numbers, but they only make them available to paying customers.

    November 25, 2009 10:43 AM
  • Tiny Elvis said:

    Capuano is closing like a race horse.  In this poll, his favorable #'s surpass Coakley's for the first time.

    November 25, 2009 10:47 AM
  • realitybill said:

    Cappy speaks too fast with high pitched, tinny voice that makes him hard to take seriously.

    Alan has yet to articulate meaningful point of difference.

    Pags seems nice guy who by luck of investments made ton of money, which doesn't qualify to deal with intrigues of the US Senate.

    November 25, 2009 5:17 PM
  • Mar said:

    ****Updated Nov 25** with copies of letters from Privacy Commissioner of Canada

    and an audio.

    Suppressed Medical Records (File 5100-13465/001)

    St. Catharines, Ontario

    - Privacy Commissioner of Canada (Sect. 25,26,28)

    - C.M.H.A / C.A.M.H. - Brock University

    Further details Google:

    Medicine_Gone_Bad

    Medicine Gone Bad Blogspot

    or

    medicine-gone-bad.blogspot.com

    November 25, 2009 9:36 PM
  • vicki kennedy said:

    As voters learn more about Alan Khazei, they will want to vote him in. He is an extraordinary public servant, the smart leader and an original thinker. His main limitation right now is with his name recognition; hopefully that will change in the next few weeks. He deserves a second look.

    November 25, 2009 11:42 PM
  • ricklapel said:

    As a Capuano supporter, I'm miffed by his TV ads so far.

    The first, heartfelt and "nice," was about how he helped an immigrant who's not yet a citizen get her children here. The next, which I still see, was about how Cheney and his gang threatened our civil liberties. The third is about authorizing more troops in Afghanistan. There might be others, but those three are the only ones I see replayed frequently.

    An ad about a non-citizen, one about an ex-VP who now wields little influence on national politics and a third about a topic down the list of leading priorities for the electorate.

    NO ads, that I've seen, about two leading issues for voters: unemployment/the economy and health care. What is his campaign thinking?

    November 29, 2009 5:48 PM
  • Matt said:

    I was going to vote for Coakley but switched to Khazei over the weekend after a few of my friends got me interested in him.  I doubt he'll win, and I'll feel bad if Capuano beats Coakley, but I'm going to go Khazei.

    November 30, 2009 4:32 PM

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