re: City Council Forums

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re: City Council Forums

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re: City Council Forums

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By swerwaysarMop on 12-05-2009

re: Confirmation Of Contradiction

Celinda Lake's poll for the  Coakley campaign is almost identical to the Boston Globe's (presumably independent) poll of 11/23, which showed Coakley at 43, Capuano at 22, Pagliuca at 15, and Khazei at 6. No one can say how large the turnout will be, but the two elected officials may have more committed voters and both get higher percentages in the actual vote than the polls show.

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re: City Council Forums

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re: City Council Forums

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By SkanokeenInus on 12-04-2009

re: Confirmation Of Contradiction

The variation in the margin might also come from how the ballot test question was worded.  Were respondents given an "undecided" option without prompting or were they just read the names of the candidates?  Are they both pure ballot tests, or are "leaners" included?  Did they use identical sampling proportions and screening for likely voters?  If they weren't exactly identical in these respects, it's difficult to say they were two similar polls and should have similar results.

My gut is that Coakley's margin would be higher in a survey that didn't prompt undecided, cast a broader likely voter net in their screens, and/or included leaning supporters in the totals they reported to you.  But that's just conjecture.

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re: City Council Forums

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By Merbactibrape on 12-04-2009

re: Confirmation Of Contradiction

If Coakley's poll was a smaller margin, but still bigger than what Capuano's poll is seeing it would be believable. But come on. There is no way she has 21 point lead - unless Capuano wasn't a choice in the poll.

By This guy on 12-03-2009

re: Senate Race Tightening... Or Not

I think all the reports could be authentic (accuracy tbd), given the differences in polling methodology we've seen so far.

The Globe poll hasn't had very good sampling, imho, since they've been including people who don't know when the election is and probably won't vote. Globe methodology put Coakley ahead by double digits several weeks ago, but probably isn't a good measure of what will happen on election day, since all the pundits expect a lower-than-normal turnout. However, the Coakley people may be polling a very similar group and praying they can actually deliver a high turnout, since that's the best scenario for a frontrunner who's relying on name recognition to carry the day. The fact that they cite the Globe leads me to believe that's the case. Or, they may just be reporting the numbers that sustain the frontrunner mystique, whatever their internals say . . .

At the same time, the other campaigns may be polling a more realistic universe that anticipates lower turnout. Given the momentum from recent endorsements, those polls may very well show a real tightening of the race. It's also worth noting that you can't claim that a 21% gap is now a 7% gap, since that 21% in the Globe poll was never measuring votes - only name recognition. Given that two campaigns independently confirm a 7 point gap between Coakley & Capuano, I'm inclined to believe it. And 7 points, when you assume a 3-4 point margin of error, is a statistical tie.

By Emerson06Ten on 12-02-2009

re: Senate Race Tightening... Or Not

My money is on Coakley dropping.  She doesn't seem to be getting any traction and she seems to be hoping she can run out the clock before more support erodes.  Maybe she'll get bailed out by "4th and 2".

By tumble4ya on 12-02-2009

re: Khazei Sneaking Up?

I was going to vote for Coakley but switched to Khazei over the weekend after a few of my friends got me interested in him.  I doubt he'll win, and I'll feel bad if Capuano beats Coakley, but I'm going to go Khazei.

By Matt on 11-30-2009

re: Khazei Sneaking Up?

As a Capuano supporter, I'm miffed by his TV ads so far.

The first, heartfelt and "nice," was about how he helped an immigrant who's not yet a citizen get her children here. The next, which I still see, was about how Cheney and his gang threatened our civil liberties. The third is about authorizing more troops in Afghanistan. There might be others, but those three are the only ones I see replayed frequently.

An ad about a non-citizen, one about an ex-VP who now wields little influence on national politics and a third about a topic down the list of leading priorities for the electorate.

NO ads, that I've seen, about two leading issues for voters: unemployment/the economy and health care. What is his campaign thinking?

By ricklapel on 11-29-2009

re: Khazei Sneaking Up?

As voters learn more about Alan Khazei, they will want to vote him in. He is an extraordinary public servant, the smart leader and an original thinker. His main limitation right now is with his name recognition; hopefully that will change in the next few weeks. He deserves a second look.

By vicki kennedy on 11-25-2009

re: Khazei Sneaking Up?

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By Mar on 11-25-2009

re: Khazei Sneaking Up?

Cappy speaks too fast with high pitched, tinny voice that makes him hard to take seriously.

Alan has yet to articulate meaningful point of difference.

Pags seems nice guy who by luck of investments made ton of money, which doesn't qualify to deal with intrigues of the US Senate.

By realitybill on 11-25-2009

re: Khazei Sneaking Up?

Capuano is closing like a race horse.  In this poll, his favorable #'s surpass Coakley's for the first time.

By Tiny Elvis on 11-25-2009

re: Khazei Sneaking Up?

I've seen the video of Khazei explaining his cavassing strategy, and my question is: how does he choose which houses to target? If it's truly random door-knocking, that seems like a waste of resources at this late stage. If it's a selected list of folks who might be likely to vote for him, wouldn't that skew his numbers from those contacts up?

Re: Coakley's support being soft, in the Boston Globe poll, a higher percentage of her supporters were firmly committed than the other candidates'. It would be interesting to see the Rasmussen crosstabs to compare those sorts of numbers, but they only make them available to paying customers.

By rondofan on 11-25-2009

re: Khazei Sneaking Up?

I canvassed for Alan Khazei during the big knock the vote weekend and I found three things:

1.  Everyone is undecided

2.  A couple people think they know who they're voting for

3.  Everyone in #1 and #2 becomes intrigued when hearing just a little about Alan

and I feel comfortable enough to make the leap--many of the people in #1 and some of the people in #2 decided/will decide to vote for Alan Khazei.

These shifting political winds, reflected in teh polls, do not surprise me at all; they reflect the experiences I had door to door

By Mr. Roboto on 11-25-2009

re: Khazei Sneaking Up?

Khazei is providing the most substantive answers to the big issues.  I'm not at all surprised that he's gaining lots of momentum as people learn more about him.

By tpmain on 11-25-2009